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Intensive Versus Extensive Events? Insights from Cumulative Flood-Induced Mortality Over the Globe, 1976–2016
International Journal of Disaster Risk Science ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s13753-020-00288-5
Bo Chen , Fanya Shi , Tingting Lin , Peijun Shi , Jing Zheng

More attention has been paid to the cost of intensive but sporadic floods than the cost of extensive but frequent events. To examine the impacts of intensive versus extensive events, we investigated the loss structure of global flood-induced mortality by using the cumulative loss ratio, marginal benefit chart, and cumulative loss plot. Drawing on the flood-induced mortality data for four decades (1976–2016) from the international disaster database EM-DAT, we defined the levels of flood loss according to the frequency of flood-induced deaths, and calculated the cumulative mortality and the marginal benefits of flood loss prevention practices at different levels. Our analysis showed that for the world’s leading 30 countries with large flood-induced mortality and different levels of development: (1) 70% of them have the cumulative deaths from extensive floods exceeding half of those caused by intensive floods in the study’s four data decades; and (2) 80% of them tend to gain less marginal benefit with increasing levels of flood prevention, with their marginal benefits peaking at loss prevention levels of 2-year or 5-year flood-induced mortality. These results indicate that, in the long run, the cumulative deaths of extensive floods are comparable to that of intensive events, and prevention of loss from extensive events can be an efficient way to reduce the total loss. For flood risk management under conditions of climate change, extensive loss events deserve more consideration.

中文翻译:

密集与广泛的事件?1976年至2016年全球洪水累积死亡率的见解

与大范围但频繁发生的事件相比,更多地关注了密集但零星的洪水造成的损失。为了检查密集事件与广泛事件的影响,我们使用累积损失率,边际收益图和累积损失图来研究全球洪水诱发的死亡率的损失结构。根据国际灾难数据库EM-DAT的四个十年(1976-2016年)的洪灾致死数据,我们根据洪灾致死的频率定义了洪灾损失的水平,并计算了累积死亡率和边际损失各级防洪减灾措施的好处。我们的分析表明,对于世界领先的30个洪灾致死率高,发展水平不同的国家:(1)在该研究的四个数据十年中,其中70%的人因大规模洪灾而造成的累积死亡人数超过严重洪灾造成的死亡人数的一半;(2)随着防洪水平的提高,其中80%的边际收益趋于减少,其边际收益在2年或5年洪灾致死的损失预防水平达到顶峰。这些结果表明,从长远来看,大洪水的累积死亡人数可与强灾事件的累积死亡人数相提并论,防止大事件造成的损失可以是减少总损失的有效方法。对于气候变化条件下的洪水风险管理,应考虑更多的损失事件。(2)随着防洪水平的提高,其中80%的边际收益趋于减少,其边际收益在2年或5年洪灾致死的损失预防水平达到顶峰。这些结果表明,从长远来看,大洪水的累积死亡人数可与强灾事件的累积死亡人数相提并论,防止大事件造成的损失可以是减少总损失的有效方法。对于气候变化条件下的洪水风险管理,应考虑更多的损失事件。(2)随着防洪水平的提高,其中80%的边际收益趋于减少,其边际收益在2年或5年洪灾致死的损失预防水平达到顶峰。这些结果表明,从长远来看,大洪水的累积死亡人数可与强灾事件的累积死亡人数相提并论,防止大事件造成的损失可以是减少总损失的有效方法。对于气候变化条件下的洪水风险管理,应考虑更多的损失事件。防止大事件造成的损失可能是减少总损失的有效方法。对于气候变化条件下的洪水风险管理,应考虑更多的损失事件。防止大事件造成的损失可能是减少总损失的有效方法。对于气候变化条件下的洪水风险管理,应考虑更多的损失事件。
更新日期:2020-07-10
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