Abstract Global demand for freshwater and marine foods (i.e., seafood) is rising and an increasing proportion is farmed. Aquaculture encompasses a range of species and cultivation methods, resulting in diverse social, economic, nutritional, and environmental outcomes. As a result, how aquaculture develops will influence human wellbeing and environmental health outcomes. Recognition of this has spurred a push for nutrition-sensitive aquaculture, which aims to benefit public health through the production of diverse, nutrient-rich seafood and enabling equitable access. This article explores plausible aquaculture futures and their role in nutrition security using a qualitative scenario approach. Two dimensions of economic development – the degree of globalization and the predominant economic development philosophy – bound four scenarios representing systems that are either localized or globalized, and orientated toward maximizing sectoral economic growth or to meeting environmental and equity dimensions of sustainability. The potential contribution of aquaculture in improving nutrition security is then evaluated within each scenario. While aquaculture could be “nutrition-sensitive” under any of the scenarios, its contribution to addressing health inequities is more likely in the economic and political context of a more globally harmonized trade environment and where economic policies are oriented toward social equity and environmental sustainability.

中文翻译：

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全球水产养殖的情景及其在人类营养中的作用

摘要 全球对淡水和海洋食品（即海产品）的需求正在上升，养殖比例也越来越高。水产养殖包括一系列物种和养殖方法，产生了多样化的社会、经济、营养和环境成果。因此，水产养殖的发展方式将影响人类福祉和环境健康结果。对这一点的认识推动了对营养敏感的水产养殖的推动，该养殖旨在通过生产多样化、营养丰富的海产品和实现公平获取来造福公众健康。本文使用定性情景方法探讨了可能的水产养殖前景及其在营养安全中的作用。经济发展的两个维度——全球化程度和主要的经济发展理念——将代表本地化或全球化的系统的四种情景结合起来，并以最大化部门经济增长或满足可持续性的环境和公平维度为导向。然后在每个情景中评估水产养殖在改善营养安全方面的潜在贡献。虽然在任何情景下水产养殖都可能是“营养敏感的”，但在全球更加协调的贸易环境以及经济政策面向社会公平和环境可持续性的经济和政治背景下，其对解决健康不平等的贡献更有可能。并以最大化部门经济增长或满足可持续性的环境和公平方面为导向。然后在每个情景中评估水产养殖在改善营养安全方面的潜在贡献。虽然在任何情景下水产养殖都可能是“营养敏感的”，但在全球更加协调的贸易环境以及经济政策面向社会公平和环境可持续性的经济和政治背景下，其对解决健康不平等的贡献更有可能。并以最大化部门经济增长或满足可持续性的环境和公平方面为导向。然后在每个情景中评估水产养殖在改善营养安全方面的潜在贡献。虽然在任何情景下水产养殖都可能是“营养敏感的”，但在全球更加协调的贸易环境以及经济政策面向社会公平和环境可持续性的经济和政治背景下，其对解决健康不平等的贡献更有可能。