The megacity of Tehran, the capital of Iran, is subjected to a high earthquake risk. Located at the central part of the Alpine–Himalayan seismic belt, Tehran is surrounded by several active faults that show some M7+ historical earthquake records. The high seismic hazard in combination with a dense population distribution and several vulnerability factors mean Tehran is one of the top 20 worldwide megacities at a high earthquake risk. This article aims to prepare an assessment of the present-day earthquake risk in Tehran. First, the earthquake risk components including hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are evaluated based on some accessible GIS-based datasets (e.g., seismicity, geology, active faults, population distribution, land use, urban fabric, buildings’ height and occupancy, structure types, and ages, as well as the vicinity to some critical infrastructures). Then, earthquake hazard maps in terms of PGA are prepared using a probabilistic approach as well as a surface rupture width map. Exposure and vulnerability maps are also provided deterministically in terms of population density and hybrid physical vulnerability, respectively. Finally, all these components are combined in a spatial framework and an earthquake risk map is provided for Tehran.

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伊朗德黑兰的地震风险评估

伊朗首都德黑兰的特大城市遭受地震的风险很高。德黑兰位于阿尔卑斯山-喜马拉雅地震带的中部，周围有几个活动断层，显示出一些M7 +历史地震记录。高地震危险加上密集的人口分布和若干脆弱性因素，意味着德黑兰是全球高地震风险排名前20位的特大城市之一。本文旨在准备对德黑兰当前地震风险的评估。首先，基于一些基于GIS的可访问数据集，例如地震，地质，活动断层，人口分布，土地利用，城市结构，建筑物的高度和占用率，结构类型，对包括灾害，暴露和脆弱性在内的地震风险成分进行评估。和年龄，以及一些关键基础设施的附近）。然后，使用概率方法以及表面破裂宽度图，准备了基于PGA的地震灾害图。还分别根据人口密度和混合物理脆弱性确定性地提供了暴露图和脆弱性图。最后，将所有这些组成部分组合在一个空间框架中，并为德黑兰提供了地震风险图。