Prescribed burning is used globally to mitigate the risks of wildfires, with severe wildfires increasing in frequency in recent decades. Despite their importance in wildfire management, the nature of future changes to prescribed burn windows under global warming remains uncertain. We use a regional climate projection ensemble to provide a robust spatiotemporal quantification of statistically significant future changes in prescribed burn windows for southeastern Australia. There are significant decreases during months presently used for prescribed burning, that is, in March to May in 2060–2079 versus 1990–2009 across several temperate regions. Conversely, burn windows show widespread significant increases in June to August, that is, months when burns have rarely occurred historically, and also in spring (September–October). Overall, projected changes in temperature and fuel moisture show the most widespread and largest decreases (or increases) in the number of days within their respective ranges suitable for conducting burns. These results support wildfire risk mitigation planning.

中文翻译：

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气候变化极大地改变了澳大利亚东南部未来减轻野火的机会

在全球范围内，使用规定的燃烧来减轻野火的风险，近几十年来，严重的野火发生频率在增加。尽管它们在野火管理中具有重要意义，但在全球变暖下未来更改规定的燃烧窗的性质仍然不确定。我们使用区域气候投影合奏为澳大利亚东南部规定的燃烧窗口提供了统计上显着的未来变化的强大时空量化方法。目前，在几个温带地区，用于规定燃烧的月份显着减少，即在2060-2079年的3月至5月与1990-2009年相比。相反，在6月至8月，燃烧窗口显示出显着的大幅增加，也就是说，在历史上很少发生烧伤的月份以及春季（9月至10月）。总体，预计的温度和燃油湿度变化在适合进行燃烧的各自范围内的天数显示最广泛，最大的减少（或增加）。这些结果支持野火风险缓解计划。