Recent studies suggest that the wintertime North Pacific eddy-driven jet stream will strengthen and extend eastward in response to Arctic sea ice loss. Using output from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project we examine the mean change of the North Pacific wintertime zonal winds, and use cluster analysis to explore the change in sub-seasonal, wintertime variability in zonal winds between experiments with future Arctic sea ice concentrations relative to a pre-industrial run. Further, given the relationship between the North Pacific jet stream and North American weather regimes, we also examine the changes in surface temperature variability over North America. The four climate models investigated here exhibit robust agreement in both sign and structure of the atmospheric responses, with a strengthened wintertime North Pacific jet, an increase in anomalously strong and extended jet events, and a decreased frequency of weakened and equatorward-shifted jet events in response to reduced Arctic sea ice. The models also show changes in wintertime, North American surface temperature patterns that are consistent with the zonal wind changes seen in the North Pacific. There is an increase in the frequency of occurrence of the North American temperature dipole pattern, defined as anomalously warm temperatures in the west or northwest and anomalously cold temperatures in the east or southeast, and a decrease in the frequency of anomalously cold temperatures over North America.

最近的研究表明，冬季北太平洋涡流驱动的急流将响应北极海冰的流失而向东加强和延伸。利用极地放大模型比对项目的输出，我们研究了北太平洋冬季纬向风的平均变化，并使用聚类分析探索了未来北极海冰浓度相对于实验的实验之间纬向风的亚季节，冬季变化的变化。工业化前的运行。此外，考虑到北太平洋急流与北美天气状况之间的关系，我们还研究了北美地表温度变化的变化。此处研究的四种气候模式在大气响应的符号和结构上都表现出强大的一致性，而北太平洋冬季喷气机则具有增强的冬季能力，随着北极海冰减少，异常强烈和延长的喷射事件增加，减弱和赤道移动的喷射事件的频率降低。这些模型还显示了冬季的变化，北美的地表温度与北太平洋的纬向风变化一致。北美温度偶极子模式的发生频率增加，这被定义为西部或西北部的异常温暖的温度以及东部或东南部的异常寒冷的温度，而北美各地的异常寒冷的频率减少。与北太平洋地区纬向风变化一致的北美地表温度模式。北美温度偶极子模式的发生频率增加，这被定义为西部或西北部的异常温暖的温度以及东部或东南部的异常寒冷的温度，而北美各地的异常寒冷的频率减少。与北太平洋地区纬向风变化一致的北美地表温度模式。北美温度偶极子模式的发生频率增加，这被定义为西部或西北部的异常温暖的温度以及东部或东南部的异常寒冷的温度，以及北美各地异常寒冷的温度的频率降低。