Epidemiological studies of malignant primary conjunctival tumors are rare. We extracted data pertaining to primary site-labeled conjunctival cancer patients present within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1992 to 2001 and from 2002 to 2011. The Kaplan-Meier approach was used for comparisons of overall survival (OS) between patients, while OS-related risk factors were identified via a Cox proportional hazards regression approach. We then constructed a nomogram that could be used to predict the 3- and 5-year OS, with the accuracy of this predictive model based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. We observed a significant reduction in age-adjusted incidence of conjunctival cancer in the 50-69-year-old age group of the 2002-2011 cohort relative to the 1992-2001 cohort (APC, ). There were no significant differences in OS between the 1992-2001 and 2002-2011 conjunctival cancer patient cohorts. Being ≥30 years old (), male (), single (), divorced (), or widowed () were all associated with an increased OS-related risk of primary conjunctival cancer (1992-2011). Our nomogram was able to accurately predict 3- and 5-year OS in conjunctival cancer patients. In verification mode, the 3-year area under the curve (AUC) was 0.697 and the 5-year AUC was 0.752. We found that age, sex, and marital status were all associated with primary conjunctival cancer survival. Our results further suggest that conjunctival cancer incidence and survival rates have been relatively stable over the last two decades, and using these data, we were able to generate a satisfactory risk prediction model for this disease.

中文翻译：

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过去二十年结膜癌的流行病学分析和预后：利用 SEER 数据进行的基于人群的回顾性研究。


恶性原发性结膜肿瘤的流行病学研究很少。我们提取了 1992 年至 2001 年和 2002 年至 2011 年监测、流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库中存在的原发部位标记结膜癌患者的数据。Kaplan-Meier 方法用于比较总生存期 (OS) ），同时通过 Cox 比例风险回归方法确定 OS 相关风险因素。然后，我们构建了一个可用于预测 3 年和 5 年 OS 的列线图，该预测模型的准确性基于受试者工作特征 (ROC) 曲线。我们观察到，与 1992-2001 年队列相比，2002-2011 年队列中 50-69 岁年龄组的结膜癌发病率显着下降（APC， ）。 1992-2001 年和 2002-2011 年结膜癌患者队列之间的 OS 没有显着差异。 年龄≥30岁（ ），男性 （ ），单身的 （ ），离婚（ ），或丧偶（ ）都与 OS 相关的原发性结膜癌风险增加相关（1992-2011 年）。我们的列线图能够准确预测结膜癌患者的 3 年和 5 年 OS。在验证模式下，3年曲线下面积（AUC）为0.697，5年AUC为0.752。我们发现年龄、性别和婚姻状况都与原发性结膜癌的生存相关。我们的结果进一步表明，结膜癌的发病率和生存率在过去二十年中相对稳定，利用这些数据，我们能够为这种疾病生成令人满意的风险预测模型。