Abstract

Trends in agro-climatic resources and wheat yields in the main grain regions of European Russia are considered. The analysis is based on the results of calculations performed with the Climate–Soil–Yield simulation system. The results reveal a relative decline in climate-driven yields of 10 to 30% over two decades for both winter and spring wheat. Multiple regression equations linking yield trends with indicators characterizing the state of agro-climatic resources are determined. They show differences in climate driven yield trends between spring and winter wheat. However, differences are only marginally significant suggesting that switching from spring wheat varieties to winter wheat would not completely neutralize the negative impact of climate trends. The probability of occurrence of drought in the grain regions of the European part of Russia is calculated for 1998–2017. The areas where the probability of occurrence of severe droughts during May–August equals or exceeds 50% are determined.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下俄罗斯欧洲部分地区的粮食作物生产力

摘要

考虑了欧洲俄罗斯主要粮食地区的农业气候资源和小麦产量趋势。该分析基于使用气候-土壤-产量模拟系统执行的计算结果。结果表明，在过去的二十年中，冬小麦和春小麦的气候驱动产量相对下降了10％至30％。确定了将产量趋势与表征农业气候资源状况的指标联系起来的多元回归方程。它们显示了春季和冬季小麦在气候驱动下的单产趋势的差异。但是，差异仅在边际上显着，这表明从春季小麦品种向冬季小麦品种的转换不会完全抵消气候趋势的负面影响。计算了1998-2017年俄罗斯欧洲部分谷物地区发生干旱的可能性。确定5月至8月发生严重干旱的可能性等于或超过50％的区域。