Abstract

The study presents the projected changes in two important agroclimatic parameters, namely, in the annual sum of active temperatures with a threshold of 10°С (SAT) and in annual total precipitation in Russia and neighboring countries. These changes are estimated using climatic data obtained by averaging the simulation results of 31 CMIP5 global climate models under the RCP4.5 moderate scenario of anthropogenic impact on the terrestrial climate system provided by the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory. The changes are evaluated for the current 20 years (2011–2030) as compared to 1981–2000 and for 2034–2053, when the average global air temperature rise will reach 2°С relative to the preindustrial level as compared to 2011–2030. A statistically significant phased increase in the analyzed agroclimatic parameters is noted for the whole territory of Russia in the subsequent periods as compared to the previous ones. The scenario-based calculations reveal that the SAT increase will be more evenly distributed in space, whereas the increase in annual total precipitation will be rather nonuniform. The results may be used for the agricultural planning and for the realization of protection activities, with account of the prediction of the distribution and mass reproduction of agricultural plant pathogens.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯和邻国的年度活动温度和年度总降水量基于场景的变化及其对农业的可能后果

摘要

这项研究提出了两个重要的农业气候参数的预计变化，即俄罗斯和邻国的活动温度年总和为10°С（SAT）阈值和年度总降水量。这些变化是使用气候数据估算的，这些数据是通过对Voeikov主地球物理观测站提供的RCP4.5中度人类活动对陆地气候系统影响的RCP4.5中等情景下的31个CMIP5全球气候模型的模拟结果取平均值而得出的。与1981-2000年相比，对当前20年（2011-2030年）和2034-2053年的变化进行了评估，那时与2011-2030年相比，全球平均气温相对于工业化前水平将上升2°С。与前一个时期相比，在随后的时期内，俄罗斯整个领土的分析农业气候参数出现了统计上显着的阶段性增长。基于情景的计算表明，SAT的增加将在空间中更均匀地分布，而年度总降水量的增加将相当不均匀。考虑到对农业植物病原体分布和大量繁殖的预测，结果可用于农业规划和保护活动的实现。