This study examines the impact of COVID-19 related ‘stay-at-home’ restrictions on food prices in 31 European countries. I combine the European Union’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) with the Stay-at-Home Restriction Index (SHRI) from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) dataset for January–May 2020. The results of a series of difference-in-difference regression models reveal that the severity of stay-at-home restrictions increased overall food prices by 1% in March 2020, compared to January and February 2020. The price level for food continued to rise in the high stay-at-home restriction countries relative to thier counterpart in April but stabilised in May. The food categories that witnessed the most significant surges in prices were meat, fish & seafood, and vegetables. The prices of bread & cereals, fruits, milk, cheese & eggs and oils & fats were not significantly affected. The correlations between food prices and stay-at-home restrictions were significant after controlling for cross-country variations in COVID-19 affectedness and other mitigation and adaptation measures, such as international travel controls, road closures and the size of the economic stimulus packages. This study presents the first empirical evidence of food price inflation as an unintended consequence of COVID-19 pandemic containment measures in one of the most severely hit continents of the world.

中文翻译：

---

COVID-19 相关的“居家”限制对欧洲食品价格的影响：初步分析结果

本研究调查了 31 个欧洲国家与 COVID-19 相关的“居家”限制对食品价格的影响。我将 2020 年 1 月至 5 月牛津 COVID-19 政府响应跟踪器 (OxCGRT) 数据集中的欧盟消费者价格协调指数 (HICP) 与居家限制指数 (SHRI) 结合起来。差中差回归模型显示，与 2020 年 1 月和 2020 年 1 月和 2 月相比，2020 年 3 月，居家限制的严重性使整体食品价格上涨了 1%。 - 国内限制国家相对于 4 月份的对应国，但在 5 月份趋于稳定。价格涨幅最大的食品类别是肉类、鱼类和海鲜以及蔬菜。面包和谷物的价格，水果、牛奶、奶酪和鸡蛋以及油脂没有受到显着影响。在控制了 COVID-19 影响的跨国差异以及其他缓解和适应措施（例如国际旅行控制、封路和经济刺激计划的规模）之后，食品价格与居家限制之间的相关性显着。这项研究提供了食品价格上涨的第一个经验证据，这是世界上受灾最严重的大陆之一的 COVID-19 大流行遏制措施的意外后果。在控制了 COVID-19 影响的跨国差异以及其他缓解和适应措施（例如国际旅行控制、封路和经济刺激计划的规模）之后，食品价格与居家限制之间的相关性显着。这项研究提供了食品价格上涨的第一个经验证据，这是世界上受灾最严重的大陆之一的 COVID-19 大流行遏制措施的意外后果。在控制了 COVID-19 影响的跨国差异以及其他缓解和适应措施（例如国际旅行控制、封路和经济刺激计划的规模）之后，食品价格与居家限制之间的相关性显着。这项研究提供了食品价格上涨的第一个经验证据，这是世界上受灾最严重的大陆之一的 COVID-19 大流行遏制措施的意外后果。