Adversarial risk analysis (ARA) is a relatively new area of research that informs decision-making when facing intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. It enables an analyst to express her Bayesian beliefs about an opponent's utilities, capabilities, probabilities and the type of strategic calculation that the opponent is using. Within that framework, the analyst then solves the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on all unknown quantities. This produces a distribution over the actions of the opponent that permits the analyst to maximize her expected utility. This overview covers conceptual, modeling, computational and applied issues in ARA.

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对抗性风险分析（概述）

对抗性风险分析 (ARA) 是一个相对较新的研究领域，可在面对聪明的对手和不确定的结果时为决策提供信息。它使分析师能够表达她对对手的效用、能力、概率和对手正在使用的战略计算类型的贝叶斯信念。在该框架内，分析师然后从对手的角度解决问题，同时将主观概率分布放在所有未知量上。这产生了对手行为的分布，允许分析师最大化她的预期效用。本概述涵盖 ARA 中的概念、建模、计算和应用问题。