Abstract

Rebuilding depleted fisheries towards sustainable levels, such as B_MSY, is challenging under uncertainty. Although a substantial amount of research has highlighted the importance of accounting for uncertainty in fisheries management, tactical measures remain to be identified. We consider two approaches to achieve this goal: (i) the naive maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach, combining management measures based on effort control, catch quotas, and spatial–temporal closures, and (ii) the harvest control rules (HCRs) approach, developing HCRs based on short-term or long-term targets. A suite of strategies is developed accordingly and tested with management strategy evaluation for their performance under four sources of uncertainty that may negatively impact management effects, including reduced recruitment strength, increased natural mortality, inadequate implementation error, and varying levels of temporal effort aggregation. Combining management measures using the naive MSY approach is found to perform poorly in tackling uncertainty. Complex HCRs that account for both short-term and long-term B_MSY targets can mitigate the adverse effects of uncertainty. The rebuilding target can be only achieved by compromising yield, especially when uncertainties with natural mortality and recruitment are present. Strategies based on catch quotas are prone to all sources of uncertainty, indicating latent risks in many current management practices.

中文翻译：

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在不确定性下向 BMSY 重建枯竭的渔业：收获控制规则优于综合管理措施

摘要

将枯竭的渔业重建到可持续水平，例如B _MSY，在不确定性下具有挑战性。尽管大量研究强调了在渔业管理中考虑不确定性的重要性，但仍有待确定战术措施。我们考虑实现这一目标的两种方法：(i) 朴素的最大可持续产量 (MSY) 方法，结合基于努力控制、捕捞配额和时空关闭的管理措施，以及 (ii) 收获控制规则 (HCR)方法，根据短期或长期目标开发 HCR。相应地制定了一套战略，并在可能对管理效果产生负面影响的四种不确定性来源下对其绩效进行了管理战略评估测试，包括招聘人数减少、自然死亡率增加、实施错误不足、以及不同级别的时间努力聚合。发现使用朴素的 MSY 方法组合管理措施在处理不确定性方面表现不佳。考虑短期和长期的复杂 HCRB _MSY目标可以减轻不确定性的不利影响。重建目标只能通过牺牲产量来实现，特别是当存在自然死亡率和补充的不确定性时。基于捕捞配额的战略容易受到所有不确定因素的影响，这表明许多当前管理实践中存在潜在风险。