A major step towards achieving the goals of the Paris agreement would be a measurable change in the evolution of global warming in response to mitigation of anthropogenic emissions. The inertia and internal variability of the climate system, however, will delay the emergence of a discernible response even to strong, sustained mitigation. Here, we investigate when we could expect a significant change in the evolution of global mean surface temperature after strong mitigation of individual climate forcers. Anthropogenic CO₂ has the highest potential for a rapidly measurable influence, combined with long term benefits, but the required mitigation is very strong. Black Carbon (BC) mitigation could be rapidly discernible, but has a low net gain in the longer term. Methane mitigation combines rapid effects on surface temperature with long term effects. For other gases or aerosols, even fully removing anthropogenic emissions is unlikely to have a discernible impact before mid-century.

实现《巴黎协定》目标的重要一步将是全球变暖演变的可衡量变化，以应对人为排放的缓解。然而，气候系统的惯性和内部可变性将延迟明显响应的出现，即使是对强烈、持续的缓解也是如此。在这里，我们调查了在个别气候强迫因素强烈缓解后，我们何时可以预期全球平均地表温度的演变会发生重大变化。人为CO ₂具有快速衡量影响的最大潜力，并结合长期利益，但所需的缓解措施非常强大。黑碳 (BC) 缓解措施可以迅速识别，但从长远来看净收益较低。甲烷减排结合了对地表温度的快速影响和长期影响。对于其他气体或气溶胶，在本世纪中叶之前，即使完全消除人为排放也不太可能产生明显的影响。