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Economic and environmental co-benefit of natural gas supply chain considering the risk attitude of designers
Journal of Cleaner Production ( IF 9.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122681
Bo Zhang , Haoran Zhang , Yin Long , Kai Fang , Ning Xu , Zhengbing Li , Yongtu Liang

Nature gas plays a fundamental role in promoting cleaner production worldwide. Given this, evaluation of the natural gas supply chain from the perspective of both economic and environmental-friendly should be considered simultaneously while proposing a comprehensive estimation model remain a challenge in the performance improving study. What's more, the inherent uncertainty and strong variation associated with natural gas demand attach difficulty in precise analysis and make an impact on the stable gas supply. This paper proposes an integrated mathematical model to estimate the economic and environmental (2-E) performance, where multiple natural gas products and transportation modes are considered in economic section, and the major carbon emission from upstream production to downstream users are given in the environmental part. An index is formulated to indicate the supply risk caused by the uncertain gas demand. Considering the risk attitude of supply chain designers may have a significant impact on the final 2-E performance, three scenarios namely Risk Neutral Scenario, Risk Aversion Scenario, and Risk-taking Scenario are applied to quantify the impact. The case study result demonstrates that 1) In comparison to the neutral scenario model which is commonly used in the literature, the annual economic profits and total carbon dioxide emission in this paper have a 6.78 million CNY and 2.06 kiloton variation, respectively. 2) The pipeline layout and location of functional stations are coincident within three scenarios, while the detailed transportation scheme in the operation period changed a lot. 3) The reliability varies from 99.88% to 89.37% within three scenarios, and the supply chain designers can make a tradeoff between the 2-E performance and supply risk according to the proposed relationship between theme.



中文翻译:

考虑设计者风险态度的天然气供应链的经济和环境共同利益

天然气在促进全球清洁生产方面发挥着根本作用。鉴于此,应该同时考虑从经济和环境角度对天然气供应链进行评估,同时提出一个综合评估模型仍然是性能改进研究中的一个挑战。此外,与天然气需求相关的内在不确定性和强烈变化给精确分析带来了困难,并影响了稳定的天然气供应。本文提出了一个综合数学模型来估算经济和环境(2-E)绩效,其中在经济部分考虑了多种天然气产品和运输方式,并给出了从上游生产到下游用户的主要碳排放量部分。制定了一个指标来指示由于不确定的天然气需求而导致的供应风险。考虑到供应链设计者的风险态度可能会对最终2-E绩效产生重大影响,因此采用了三个场景(即“风险中性”方案,“风险规避”方案和“承担风险”方案)来量化影响。案例研究结果表明:1)与文献中常用的中性情景模型相比,本文的年经济利润和二氧化碳总排放量分别变化678万元和2.06千吨。2)在三种情况下,功能站的管线布局和位置是一致的,而运营期的详细运输方案却发生了很大变化。3)在三种情况下,可靠性从99.88%到89.37%不等,

更新日期:2020-07-07
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