Abstract This article aims to present historical rate of decoupling and based on that determine the scope for India to increase its mitigation beyond the NDC commitment. Empirical evidence on nature and rate of decoupling between energy related emission and economic growth for the period 1990–91 to 2012–13 in India is presented. In addition to estimating the magnitude of decoupling elasticity, decomposition analysis is also applied to understand how the four factors: activity growth, energy intensity change, structural change and fuel mix change, are driving the change in emission in India. Decoupling elasticity and Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) methods are used for decomposition. The results indicate presence of relative decoupling in India. The industrial sector leads among the four sectors -agriculture, industry, services and power generation in achieving this relative decoupling, mostly through improvement in energy efficiency and some structural changes. Results show that even in the business as usual scenario if India acts upon individual sector level mitigation potentials, it has the potential to raise mitigation ambition beyond current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) without adversely impacting economic growth. With continued high share of coal in the energy mix it is going to be difficult to achieve absolute decoupling.

中文翻译：

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印度可以提高其减排目标：基于排放与经济增长脱钩的历史证据的分析

摘要 本文旨在介绍脱钩的历史速度，并在此基础上确定印度在 NDC 承诺之外增加减排的范围。提供了印度 1990-91 年至 2012-13 年期间能源相关排放与经济增长之间脱钩的性质和速度的实证证据。除了估计脱钩弹性的大小外，分解分析还用于了解活动增长、能源强度变化、结构变化和燃料结构变化这四个因素如何推动印度的排放变化。解耦弹性和对数平均除法指数 (LMDI) 方法用于分解。结果表明印度存在相对脱钩。工业部门在农业、工业、服务和发电实现这种相对脱钩，主要是通过提高能源效率和一些结构变化。结果表明，即使在一切照旧的情况下，如果印度对个别部门层面的减缓潜力采取行动，它也有可能在不影响经济增长的情况下将减缓目标提高到目前的国家自主贡献 (NDC) 之外。随着煤炭在能源结构中的持续高份额，实现绝对脱钩将很困难。它有可能在目前的国家自主贡献 (NDC) 之外提高缓解目标，而不会对经济增长产生不利影响。随着煤炭在能源结构中的持续高份额，实现绝对脱钩将很困难。它有可能在目前的国家自主贡献 (NDC) 之外提高缓解目标，而不会对经济增长产生不利影响。随着煤炭在能源结构中的持续高份额，实现绝对脱钩将很困难。