Earthquake occurrence and recurrence depend on number of factors beyond mere observations. These include seismotectonic nature of the region, spreading rate of the ridge or subduction of plates causing the trench, active or otherwise nature of the fault on crust (on land), stress-strain regime, and so on. In this work, the recurrence and expected times of next strong earthquakes (M ≥ 6) in the oceanic ridges and trenches were computed using gamma and lognormal probabilistic models. Summing the occurrence times of last strong earthquakes and these recurrence times, expected times of the next strong earthquakes were retrospectively and forwardly predicted. The expected times of the next strong earthquakes retrospectively predicted correlated with the recorded strong earthquakes in the earthquake catalog of the Advance National Seismic System (ANSS) hosted by the Northern California Earthquake Data Centre, USA, for the period of 1978–2017 in a readable format. The successful prediction of the expected times of the next strong earthquakes retrospectively is an indication that the expected times of the next strong earthquakes forwardly predicted in the regions of study will be positive. However, since the occurrence and recurrence of earthquakes depend on many factors, it is therefore important to note that it may not always be accurate to predict future earthquakes from retrospective perspective. Nonetheless, this work is a good effort, and it has thrown up some interesting results.

地震的发生和复发取决于许多因素，而不仅仅是观测。这些包括该地区的地震构造性质，脊的扩展速度或引起沟槽的板块俯冲，地壳（陆上）断层的活动或其他性质，应力应变机制等。在这项工作中，使用伽马和对数正态概率模型计算了海脊和海沟中下一次强地震（M≥6）的复发和预期时间。总结最近一次强地震的发生时间和这些复发时间，可以追溯并向前预测下一次强地震的预期时间。1978年至2017年期间，由美国北加利福尼亚地震数据中心托管的美国国家先进地震系统（ANSS）地震目录中记录的强地震相关的回顾性预测为下一次强地震的预期时间。格式。回顾性地预测下一次强烈地震的预期时间的成功表明，在研究区域中向前预测的下一次强烈地震的预期时间将是正数。但是，由于地震的发生和复发取决于许多因素，因此必须注意，从回顾的角度预测未来的地震可能并不总是准确的。尽管如此，这项工作是一项很好的工作，并且已经产生了一些有趣的结果。