Abstract Climate changes in 2015–2100 have been simulated with the use of the INM-CM5 climate model following four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 (single model runs) and SSP3-7.0 (an ensemble of five model runs). Changes in the global mean temperature and spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation are analyzed. The global warming predicted by the INM-CM5 model in the scenarios considered is smaller than that in other CMIP6 models. It is shown that the temperature in the hottest summer month can rise more quickly than the seasonal mean temperature in Russia. An analysis of a change in Arctic sea ice shows no complete Arctic summer ice melting in the 21st century under any model scenario. Changes in the meridional streamfunction in atmosphere and ocean are studied.

中文翻译：

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在 INM-CM5 气候模型中模拟 21 世纪未来可能发生的气候变化

摘要 使用 INM-CM5 气候模型模拟了 2015-2100 年的气候变化，以下四种情景：SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5（单个模型运行）和 SSP3-7.0（五个的集合）模型运行）。分析了全球平均气温的变化以及气温和降水的空间分布。INM-CM5 模型在考虑的情景中预测的全球变暖小于其他 CMIP6 模型。研究表明，夏季最热月份的气温上升速度比俄罗斯的季节性平均气温上升得更快。对北极海冰变化的分析表明，在任何模型情景下，21 世纪北极夏季冰层都不会完全融化。研究了大气和海洋中经向流函数的变化。