We present an interdisciplinary review of the observed and projected variations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation within the southwestern South Atlantic focused on basin-scale processes driven by climate change, and their potential impact on the regional fisheries. The observed patterns of atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with anthropogenic climate change. There is strong scientific evidence suggesting that the Brazil Current is intensifying and shifting southwards during the past decades in response to changes in near-surface wind patterns, leading to intense ocean warming along the path of the Brazil Current, the South Brazil Bight, and in the Río de la Plata. These changes are presumably responsible for the poleward shift of commercially important pelagic species in the region and the long-term shift from cold-water to warm-water species in industrial fisheries of Uruguay. Scientific and traditional knowledge shows that climate change is also affecting small-scale fisheries. Long-term records suggest that mass mortalities decimated harvested clam populations along coastal ecosystems of the region, leading to prolonged shellfishery closures. More frequent and intense harmful algal blooms together with unfavorable environmental conditions driven by climate change stressors affect coastal shellfisheries, impact economic revenues, and damage the livelihood of local communities. We identify future modelling needs to reduce uncertainty in the expected effects of climate change on marine fisheries. However, the paucity of fisheries data prevents a more effective assessment of the impact of climate change on fisheries and hampers the ability of governments and communities to adapt to these changes.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对南大西洋西南部大气环流、海洋和渔业的影响：综述

我们对南大西洋西南部大气和海洋环流的观测和预测变化进行了跨学科审查，重点是气候变化驱动的流域尺度过程及其对区域渔业的潜在影响。观测到的大气环流异常模式与人为气候变化一致。有强有力的科学证据表明，巴西洋流在过去几十年中随着近地表风模式的变化而增强并向南移动，导致巴西洋流、南巴西湾和拉普拉塔河。这些变化可能是该地区具有重要商业价值的远洋物种向两极转移以及乌拉圭工业渔业从冷水向温水物种的长期转变的原因。科学和传统知识表明，气候变化也在影响小规模渔业。长期记录表明，大规模死亡导致该地区沿海生态系统收获的蛤种群数量锐减，导致贝类养殖业长期关闭。更频繁和更强烈的有害藻华以及气候变化压力因素导致的不利环境条件影响沿海贝类渔业，影响经济收入，并损害当地社区的生计。我们确定未来的建模需求，以减少气候变化对海洋渔业的预期影响的不确定性。然而，