The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) is a pest and a conservation problem on many islands, where its heavy grazing pressure threatens many endemic plants with extinction. Previous studies in its native and introduced range have highlighted the high spatial variability of rabbit abundance at local and landscape scales, depending on many factors such as the existence of different habitats. Modeling of the species can be useful to better understand spatial patterns and to prioritize actions, especially in those regions in which rabbits have become invasive. Here, we investigate the distribution of the European rabbit in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), where the species was introduced during the 15th century and has subsequently changed vegetation composition. Added to the direct effects of rabbits on vegetation, climate change could also have implications for rabbit populations, especially in the alpine ecosystem. To evaluate that, we estimated rabbit abundance in 216 plots randomly distributed on Tenerife island (61 in the alpine ecosystem), modeled the potential current spatial abundance of the species and considered how it might vary under different climate change scenarios. We associated rabbit abundance to a wide selection of abiotic, biotic, and human variables expected to influence rabbit abundance on the island. We found a positive correlation between rabbit abundance and temperature and a negative correlation in the case of precipitation. Hence, according to the models' projections, climate change is expected to enhance rabbit populations in the future. Current higher densities were related to land disturbance and open areas, and a remarkable increase is expected to occur in the alpine ecosystem. Overall, we consider that this study provides valuable information for land managers in the Canary archipelago as it reveals how global warming could indirectly exacerbate the conservation problems of the endemic flora in oceanic islands.

中文翻译：

---

在气候变化下，预测侵入兔子扩散到海洋岛屿（特内里费岛）的生态系统中的增加。

欧洲兔（穴兔）是许多岛屿上的一种有害生物和养护问题，那里放牧的沉重压力威胁着许多特有植物的灭绝。先前对其原生和引入范围的研究都强调了兔子丰度在局部和景观尺度上的高空间变异性，这取决于许多因素，例如不同栖息地的存在。对物种进行建模有助于更好地了解空间格局并确定行动的优先级，尤其是在兔子已成为入侵物种的那些地区。在这里，我们调查了欧洲兔子在特内里费岛（西班牙加那利群岛）的分布，该物种在15世纪被引入该物种，并随后改变了植被组成。除了兔子对植被的直接影响外，气候变化还可能对兔子种群产生影响，特别是在高山生态系统中。为了评估这一点，我们估算了随机分布在特内里费岛（高山生态系统中的61个）上的216个样地中的兔子丰度，对当前物种的潜在空间丰度进行了建模，并考虑了其在不同气候变化情景下的变化情况。我们将兔子的丰富度与预计会影响岛上兔子的丰富度的多种非生物，生物和人类变量相关联。我们发现兔子的丰度与温度呈正相关，而在降水情况下呈负相关。因此，根据模型的预测，预计气候变化将在未来增加兔子的数量。当前较高的密度与土地扰动和开阔地带有关，预计在高山生态系统中将出现显着增加。总体，