Abstract The objective of the present work is to analyse the expected dynamics of the wind energy in the Baltic Sea. From the 18 offshore wind farms currently operating there, 10 locations with higher installed capacity have been selected as reference. The wind data delivered by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) are processed and analysed considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. The novelty of the proposed study consists in the fact that this is focused on the assessment of the expected average and extreme wind power, considering the 30-year time window 2021–2050. Furthermore, in order to make a comparison, an analysis of the historical wind data coming from the same RCM corresponding to the past 30-year period 1976–2005 is also carried out. The results indicate a slight enhancement of the wind power, which is higher for RCP4.5. Some locations where the wind power enhancement is expected to be more significant have been also identified. Finally, it can be noticed that while for the historical data the trend indicates a constant tendency, as regards the near future period (2021–2050) the trends show a tendency of enhancement of the wind power, which is higher for RCP 8.5.

中文翻译：

---

波罗的海风能动态评估、过去和未来预测

摘要 目前工作的目的是分析波罗的海风能的预期动态。从目前在那里运营的 18 个海上风电场中，选择了 10 个装机容量较高的地点作为参考。考虑到代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 情景 4.5 和 8.5，对区域气候模型 (RCM) 提供的风数据进行处理和分析。拟议研究的新颖之处在于，考虑到 2021-2050 年的 30 年时间窗口，该研究侧重于对预期平均和极端风力发电的评估。此外，为了进行比较，还对来自同一 RCM 对应于过去 30 年期间 1976-2005 的历史风数据进行了分析。结果表明风力略有增强，RCP4.5 更高。还确定了一些预计风电增强更显着的位置。最后，可以注意到，虽然历史数据的趋势表明趋势是持续的，但在近期（2021-2050）期间，趋势表明风力发电有增强的趋势，RCP 8.5 的趋势更高。