A “Novel Thunderstorm Alert System” (NOTHAS) has been developed and extensively tested for forecast and warnings of mid-latitude and tropical convective events. The design of the system showed some potential advantages compared to earlier alert systems, mainly in reducing uncertainties in predictions by taking the given maximum hourly local-scale signal. It represents a dynamic tool which allows the use of the probability concept of multivariate distribution and integrating it into general function by taking all convective parameters. It utilizes the latest developed microphysical parameterization scheme using a scale and aerosol awareness convective scheme and the sharpest criteria for mid-latitude storms. NOTHAS shows consistency and some kind of flexibility in post-processing applications, regardless of different parameterizations used in the ensemble or deterministic forecasts. The scientific verification shows a high level of accuracy in all significant scores which indicates that severe weather outlooks produced by NOTHAS for several hours ahead are in good alignment with observed thunderstorm activity. This novel tool shows a good performance which has sufficient merit for further additional testing and system evaluation of different severe mid-latitude and tropical storms, tropical cyclones and other severe weather cases across regions.

A“没有VEL钍understorm一个lert小号ystem”（NOTHAS）已开发并经过了广泛的测试，可用于预测中纬度和热带对流事件。与早期的警报系统相比，该系统的设计显示出一些潜在的优势，主要在于通过采用给定的每小时最大本地尺度信号来减少预测的不确定性。它代表了一种动态工具，可以利用多元分布的概率概念，并通过采用所有对流参数将其整合到一般函数中。它利用最新开发的微物理参数化方案，该方案使用了规模和气溶胶感知对流方案以及针对中纬度风暴的最严格标准。NOTHAS在后处理应用程序中显示出一致性和某种灵活性，不管整体预测或确定性预测中使用的不同参数设置如何。科学验证表明，所有重要分数的准确性都很高，这表明NOTHAS在未来数小时内所产生的严峻天气状况与观测到的雷暴活动高度吻合。这种新颖的工具显示出良好的性能，具有足够的优势，可用于进一步进行不同地区的中纬度和热带风暴，热带气旋和其他恶劣天气情况的额外测试和系统评估。