Increases in global temperatures are expected to have dramatic effects on the abundance and distribution of species in the coming years. Intertidal organisms, which already experience temperatures at or beyond their thermal limits, provide a model system in which to investigate these effects. We took advantage of a previous study in which experimental plates were deployed in the intertidal zone and passively warmed for 12 years to a daily maximum temperature on average 2.7°C higher than control plots on the adjacent bedrock. We compared the composition of the biological communities on each experimental plate with its neighboring bedrock control. Plate communities showed decreased richness of taxa and percent cover of filamentous algae, mussels and mobile grazers relative to bedrock, and increased percent cover of biofilm. We then used short‐term time‐series measurements of plate and bedrock temperatures and a mechanistic heat‐budget model to hindcast those temperatures back 12 years. Greater differences in long‐term average temperature between the experimental plates and bedrock controls were correlated with lower similarity in community composition. Additionally, years with higher average differences between plate and bedrock temperatures were more predictive of current compositional similarity between plate and bedrock communities, even though they occurred farther in the past than did more recent, but cooler, years. We conclude that current intertidal communities reflect their long‐term, rather than short‐term, thermal histories. Mechanistic heat‐budget models based on short‐term measurements can provide this valuable, long‐term information.

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长期的机制性后预报法可预测受潮的潮间带群落的结构

预计未来几年全球温度的升高将对物种的丰富度和分布产生巨大影响。潮间生物已经经历了温度达到或超过其温度极限，因此提供了一个模型系统来研究这些影响。我们利用了先前的研究，在该研究中，将实验板部署在潮间带并被动加热12年，使其平均日温度比相邻基岩上的对照地平均高2.7°C。我们将每个实验板上的生物群落的组成与其相邻的基岩对照进行了比较。板块群落显示，相对于基岩，分类单元的丰富度降低，丝状藻类，贻贝和移动性放牧者的覆盖率降低，生物膜的覆盖率提高。然后，我们使用了板块和基岩温度的短期时间序列测量结果以及机械热预算模型，将这些温度推后了12年。实验板块与基岩对照之间长期平均温度的较大差异与群落组成的相似性较低相关。此外，尽管板岩和基岩温度过去的时间比过去更近但温度较低，但板岩和基岩温度之间平均差异较高的年份更能预测板岩和基岩群落之间当前的组成相似性。我们得出的结论是，当前的潮间带群落反映了他们的长期（而不是短期）热史。基于短期测量的机械热预算模型可以提供这种有价值的长期信息。