We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the empirical data from 100-m dash competitions (one of the sports disciplines with the most stringent controls of external randomness), with the results of an agent-based computer model, which assumes that success depends jointly on the intrinsic talent of the agent and on unpredictable luck. We find a small, but non-zero contribution of random luck to the performance of the best sprinters, which may serve as a lower bound for the randomness role in other, less stringently controlled competitive domains. Additionally we discuss the perception of the payoff differences among the top participants, and the role of random luck in the resulting inequality.

通过比较100米短跑比赛（对外部随机性进行最严格控制的体育学科之一）的经验数据，以及代理人的结果，我们提出了一种评估机会在成功中所起的作用的新方法基于计算机的模型，该模型假定成功共同取决于代理商的内在才能和运气。我们发现随机运气对最佳短跑选手的表现贡献很小，但非零，这可能是在其他不那么严格控制的竞争领域中发挥随机作用的下限。此外，我们讨论了对最高参与者之间收益差异的看法，以及随机运气在由此产生的不平等中的作用。