Longitudinal data from multiple cohorts may be analyzed by Bayesian research synthesis. Here, we illustrate this approach by investigating the development of self-control between age 13 and 19 and the role of sex therein in a multi-cohort, longitudinal design. Three Dutch cohorts supplied data: the Netherlands Twin Register (NTR; N = 21,079), Research on Adolescent Development and Relationships-Young (RADAR-Y; N = 497), and Tracking Adolescents’ Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS; N = 2229). Self-control was assessed by one measure in NTR and RADAR-Y, and three measures in TRAILS. In each cohort, we evaluated evidence for competing informative hypotheses regarding the development of self-control. Subsequently, we aggregated this evidence over cohorts and measures to arrive at a robust conclusion that was supported by all cohorts and measures. We found robust evidence for the hypothesis that on average self-control increases during adolescence (i.e., maturation) and that individuals with lower initial self-control often experience a steeper increase in self-control (i.e., a pattern of recovery). From self-report, boys have higher initial self-control levels at age 13 than girls, whereas parents report higher self-control for girls.

来自多个队列的纵向数据可以通过贝叶斯研究综合进行分析。在这里，我们通过调查 13 岁至 19 岁之间自我控制的发展以及性别在多队列纵向设计中的作用来说明这种方法。三个荷兰队列提供了数据：荷兰双胞胎登记册（NTR； N = 21,079）、青少年发展和关系研究（RADAR-Y； N = 497）和跟踪青少年个人生活调查（TRAILS； N = 2229） 。自我控制通过 NTR 和 RADAR-Y 中的一项措施以及 TRAILS 中的三项措施进行评估。在每个队列中，我们评估了有关自我控制发展的相互竞争的信息假设的证据。随后，我们通过队列和措施汇总了这些证据，得出了所有队列和措施都支持的强有力的结论。我们发现了强有力的证据来证明这一假设：平均而言，自我控制力在青春期（即成熟）期间会增加，并且初始自我控制力较低的个体通常会经历自我控制力的急剧增加（即恢复模式）。根据自我报告，男孩在 13 岁时的初始自我控制水平高于女孩，而家长则报告女孩的自我控制水平较高。