Key message

The extreme hydroclimatic events in the Conchos River Basin, are strongly associated with ocean–atmospheric phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the streamflow reconstruction showed the occurrence of up to 10-year droughts.

Abstract

Dendrochronology is a modern science used to study hydroclimatic events through the measurement and standardization of tree-rings. Long-term dendrochronological series contribute to the improvement of our knowledge of past climatic events and provide information for wise management of water resources. The objective of this study was to generate an actualized streamflow volume reconstruction with a regional chronology and identify extreme hydroclimatic events in the Conchos River Basin. We analyzed the hydroclimatic behavior of the streamflow volume through a dendrochronological network in the Basin. The regional earlywood chronology was analyzed by single correlation and principal component analysis, which allowed obtaining the transfer model to determine extreme hydroclimatic events and defined the influence of large-scale ocean–atmospheric phenomena. Nine earlywood series showed a common variance and responded significantly (r = 0.68, n = 67, p < 0.05) to the water volume accumulated in the November–June period measured the water inflow to the Boquilla Dam. From that correlation, a 243-year (1775–2017) streamflow reconstruction was made. The hydrological analysis of the reconstruction showed the occurrence of up to 10-year long drought—from 1948 to 1957—and a period with maximum moisture between 1983 and 1994 with a probability of occurrence of 4.16% (24 year frequency). We found significant correlations between the reconstructed streamflow volumes and the Southern Oscillation Index (r = 0.52, p < 0.05, n = 203); Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (r = 0.32, p < 0.05, n = 68), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (r = 0.39, p < 0.05, n = 118), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (0.32, p < 0.05, n = 70). The observed correlations with the drought indices such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index were also significant (r = 0.75, r = 0.77, p < 0.05, respectively). Our historical reconstruction of streamflow in the Conchos River basin contributes to a better understanding of the frequency of extreme hydroclimatic events affecting water availability in this binational basin.

中文翻译：

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墨西哥奇瓦瓦州Conchos河流域243年的重建流量和极端水气候事件的识别

关键信息

康乔斯河流域的极端水文气候事件与海洋-大气现象密切相关，例如厄尔尼诺南方涛动，太平洋年代际涛动和大西洋多年代际涛动，水流重建表明长达10年的干旱发生。

抽象

树木年代学是一门现代科学，用于通过树木年轮的测量和标准化研究水文气候事件。长期的树轮年代学系列有助于改善我们对过去气候事件的了解，并为明智地管理水资源提供信息。这项研究的目的是利用区域年表生成实际的流量重建，并确定康乔斯河流域的极端水文气候事件。我们通过该盆地的树状年代学网络分析了径流量的水文气候行为。通过单相关和主成分分析对区域早材年代进行了分析，这使获得转换模型可以确定极端的水文气候事件，并确定了大规模海洋-大气现象的影响。九个早木系列表现出共同的方差并且反应显着（r  = 0.68，n  = 67，p  <0.05）相对于11月至6月期间累积的水量，测量了流入Boquilla大坝的水量。根据这种相关性，进行了243年（1775年至2017年）的流量重建。重建的水文分析表明，从1948年到1957年，长达10年的干旱发生了，并且在1983年至1994年之间出现了最大的湿度时期，发生概率为4.16％（24年频率）。我们发现重建流量与南方涛动指数之间存在显着相关性（r  = 0.52，p  <0.05，n  = 203）；多元厄尔尼诺南方涛动指数（r  = 0.32，p <0.05，n  = 68），太平洋年代际振荡（r  = 0.39，p  <0.05，n  = 118）和大西洋多年代际振荡（0.32，p  <0.05，n  = 70）。观测到的与干旱指数（如Palmer干旱严重度指数和标准降水蒸散指数）的相关性也很显着（r  = 0.75，r  = 0.77，p  <0.05）。我们对Conchos河流域的水流进行的历史重建有助于更好地了解影响该双流域水供应的极端水文气候事件的发生频率。