In a strong earthquake, not only a large number of coseismic landslides are triggered, but relaxation and cracks in the rocks and soils are induced, which make these rocks and soils vulnerable to instability during subsequent rainfall; thus, strong earthquakes always have long-term effects on landslides. The geo-hazards along the Zhaotong-Qiaojia road in the 2014 Ludian earthquake (Ms 6.5) of Yunnan Province, China, were investigated, and the Ganjiazhai giant landslide was chosen as a case study. First, using the limit equilibrium analysis and Newmark method, the critical seismic intensity of the landslide before the earthquake was evaluated. Secondly, the dynamic failure process of the landslide under the measured ground motion was simulated with the discontinuous deformation analysis method. Lastly, based on stress–seepage coupling analysis and precipitation data from Ludian meteorological station, the stability of the landslide during subsequent rainfall after the earthquake was predicted. The results show that the critical seismic intensity was within degrees VIII–IX, which is consistent with the results of the earthquake damage investigation. The dynamic failure process can be divided into four stages, and four scarps formed; the potential sliding zones during the subsequent rainfall were at the first scarp and the fourth scarp, and their critical rainfall amounts were 35–40 mm and 55–60 mm, respectively. In this paper, failure process simulation and stability prediction of the landslide before, during, and after the strong earthquake are presented, which provide analysis methods for the dynamic stability of landslides in the meizoseismal area.

在强地震中，不仅引发了许多同震滑坡，而且引起了岩石和土壤的松弛和裂缝，这使这些岩石和土壤在随后的降雨中容易失稳；因此，强地震总是对滑坡产生长期影响。研究了2014年云南省鲁甸地震（6.5级）昭通-乔家路沿线的地质灾害，并以甘家寨巨型滑坡为例进行了研究。首先，使用极限平衡分析和Newmark方法，评估了地震前滑坡的临界地震烈度。其次，采用非连续变形分析方法模拟了在实测地面运动下滑坡的动态破坏过程。最后，根据Lu甸气象站的应力－渗流耦合分析和降水数据，预测了地震后后续降雨过程中滑坡的稳定性。结果表明，临界地震烈度在VIII–IX度以内，这与地震破坏调查的结果是一致的。动态破坏过程可以分为四个阶段，形成四个阶跃。在随后的降雨过程中，潜在的滑动带分别位于第一陡坡和第四陡坡，其临界降雨量分别为35-40 mm和55-60 mm。本文介绍了强震之前，之中和之后的滑坡破坏过程模拟和稳定性预测，