The illicit tobacco trade undermines the effectiveness of tobacco tax policies; increases the availability of cheap cigarettes, which, in turn, increases tobacco use and tobacco related deaths; and causes huge revenue losses to governments. There is limited evidence on the extent of illicit tobacco trade particularly cigarettes in Bangladesh. The paper presents the protocol for a mixed-methods study to estimate the extent of illicit cigarette trade in Bangladesh. The study will address three research questions: (a) What proportion of cigarettes sold as retail are illicit? (b) What are the common types of tax avoidance and tax evasion? (c) Can pack examination from the trash recycle market be considered as a new method to assess illicit trade in comparison to that from retailers and streets? Following an observational research method, data will be collected utilizing empty cigarette packs from three sources: (a) retailers; (b) streets; and (c) trash recycle market. In addition, a structured questionnaire will be used to collect information from retailers selling cigarettes. We will select post codes as Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) using a multi-stage random sampling technique. We will randomly select eight districts from eight divisions stratified by those with land border and non-land border; and within each district, we will randomly select ten postcodes, stratified by rural (five) and urban (five) PSU to ensure maximum geographical variation, leading to a total of eighty post codes from eight districts. The analysis will report the proportions of packs that do not comply with the study definition of illicit. Independent estimates of illicit tobacco are rare in low- and middle-income countries such as Bangladesh. Findings will inform efforts by revenue authorities and others to address the effects of illicit trade and counter tobacco industry claims.

中文翻译：

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估计孟加拉国非法卷烟贸易的规模：混合方法研究方案。


非法烟草贸易损害了烟草税政策的有效性；增加廉价卷烟的供应，进而增加烟草使用和与烟草相关的死亡；并给政府造成巨大的收入损失。关于孟加拉国非法烟草贸易尤其是卷烟贸易规模的证据有限。本文提出了一项混合方法研究的方案，以估计孟加拉国非法卷烟贸易的程度。该研究将解决三个研究问题： (a) 零售卷烟中非法卷烟的比例是多少？ (b) 常见的避税和逃税类型有哪些？ (c) 与零售商和街道相比，垃圾回收市场的包装检查是否可以被视为评估非法贸易的新方法？采用观察性研究方法，将利用空烟盒从三个来源收集数据：(a) 零售商； (b) 街道； (c) 垃圾回收市场。此外，还将使用结构化调查问卷来收集销售卷烟的零售商的信息。我们将使用多阶段随机抽样技术选择邮政编码作为初级抽样单位（PSU）。按照陆地边境和非陆地边境划分的8个区划，随机抽取8个区；在每个地区内，我们将随机选择 10 个邮政编码，按农村（5 个）和城市（5 个）初级抽样单位进行分层，以确保最大的地理差异，从而形成来自 8 个地区的总共 80 个邮政编码。分析将报告不符合非法研究定义的包装的比例。在孟加拉国等低收入和中等收入国家，对非法烟草的独立估计很少。 调查结果将为税务机关和其他机构解决非法贸易影响和反击烟草业索赔的努力提供信息。