Factors that influence the distribution, abundance, and diversification of species can simultaneously affect multiple evolutionary lineages within or across communities. These include changes to the environment or inter‐specific ecological interactions that cause ranges of multiple species to contract, expand, or fragment. Such processes predict temporally clustered evolutionary events across species, such as synchronous population divergences and/or changes in population size. There have been a number of methods developed to infer shared divergences or changes in population size, but not both, and the latter has been limited to approximate methods. We introduce a full‐likelihood Bayesian method that uses genomic data to estimate temporal clustering of an arbitrary mix of population divergences and population‐size changes across taxa. Using simulated data, we find that estimating the timing and sharing of demographic changes tends to be inaccurate and sensitive to prior assumptions, which is in contrast to accurate, precise, and robust estimates of shared divergence times. We also show that previous estimates of co‐expansion among five Alaskan populations of three‐spine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were likely driven by prior assumptions and ignoring invariant characters. We conclude by discussing potential avenues to improve the estimation of synchronous demographic changes across populations.

中文翻译：

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从基因组数据推断共享进化事件的通用全似然贝叶斯方法的见解：推断共享人口统计事件具有挑战性

影响物种分布、丰度和多样化的因素可以同时影响群落内或群落之间的多个进化谱系。这些包括环境或种间生态相互作用的变化，导致多个物种的范围缩小、扩大或分裂。这些过程预测跨物种的时间聚类进化事件，例如同步种群差异和/或种群规模的变化。已经开发了许多方法来推断人口规模的共同差异或变化，但不能同时进行，后者仅限于近似方法。我们引入了一种全似然贝叶斯方法，该方法使用基因组数据来估计种群差异和种群规模变化的任意组合的时间聚类。使用模拟数据，我们发现估计人口变化的时间和共享往往不准确并且对先前的假设很敏感，这与对共享发散时间的准确、精确和稳健的估计形成对比。我们还表明，先前对阿拉斯加五只三刺棘鱼（Gasterosteus aculeatus）种群间共同扩张的估计可能是由先前的假设驱动的，而忽略了不变的特征。最后，我们讨论了改进对不同人群同步人口变化估计的潜在途径。我们还表明，先前对阿拉斯加五只三刺棘鱼（Gasterosteus aculeatus）种群间共同扩张的估计可能是由先前的假设驱动的，而忽略了不变的特征。最后，我们讨论了改进对不同人群同步人口变化估计的潜在途径。我们还表明，先前对阿拉斯加五只三刺棘鱼（Gasterosteus aculeatus）种群间共同扩张的估计可能是由先前的假设驱动的，而忽略了不变的特征。最后，我们讨论了改进对不同人群同步人口变化估计的潜在途径。