Abstract The role of armed conflicts on land use/cover changes (LUCC), especially in Zagros forests of Iran, remains ambiguous after 30 years of the Iraq-Iran war. Our goal in this study was to assess LUCC in Sardasht related to the Iraq-Iran war in a 22 year period (1976–1998). LUCC of Sardasht city was evaluated using Landsat satellite image time series of MSS and TM data. We classified multi-temporal Landsat imagery using Random Forest classifier, then Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to change detection and analysis. Change detection results showed that during 1976–1998, 5363.37 ha of forest areas were declined and converted to the croplands, rangelands and built-up areas. The highest decrease of forest areas was in periods of before (1976–1984) and after the war (1988–1993 and 1993–1998), 1331, 1734, and 2066 ha, respectively. While, during the war (1984–1988), only 54 ha decrease has taken place in forest lands of Sardasht. Also, increasing in other land uses during this period was significantly less than other periods. Calculation of annual rate of deforestation showed that the period of 1993–1998, has the highest rate of degradation in forest areas with a rate of −0.45%. While, during and before the war, it was −0.01% and − 0.20%, respectively. With the start of the war, residents of the region migrated to safe areas. The result of this migration was reducing forest conversion to other land uses. Trends in deforestation and forest degradation intensified after the end of the war. The causes of this destruction were destroying regulatory and control infrastructure on forests and natural resources in addition to the return of the inhabitants and an increase in demand for food and agricultural development. Moreover, after the war, the attention of the government was towards supplying the needs of human societies. Therefore, not enough attention was paid to monitoring and controlling over the degradation of natural resources. It is therefore necessary to reduce residents' dependence on natural resources through accurate and detailed planning and to increase their participation in forest conservation. In this regard, conservation programs should be continued strongly.

中文翻译：

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武装冲突和土地利用变化：扎格罗斯森林中的伊拉克-伊朗战争洞察

摘要 武装冲突对土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）的作用，特别是在伊朗的扎格罗斯森林，在伊拉克-伊朗战争 30 年后仍然不明确。我们在这项研究中的目标是评估与伊拉克-伊朗战争在 22 年期间（1976-1998）相关的萨达什特的 LUCC。使用 MSS 和 TM 数据的 Landsat 卫星图像时间序列评估 Sardasht 市的 LUCC。我们使用随机森林分类器对多时相 Landsat 影像进行分类，然后使用 Land Change Modeler (LCM) 进行变化检测和分析。变化检测结果表明，1976-1998 年间，5363.37 公顷的森林面积减少并转变为耕地、牧场和建成区。森林面积减少幅度最大的时期是战前（1976-1984）和战后（1988-1993 和 1993-1998），分别为 1331、1734 和 2066 公顷。尽管，在战争期间（1984-1988），Sardasht 的林地仅减少了 54 公顷。此外，在此期间其他土地用途的增加明显少于其他时期。每年的森林砍伐率计算表明，1993-1998 年期间，森林区域的退化率最高，为-0.45%。而在战争期间和战前，分别为 -0.01% 和 -0.20%。随着战争的开始，该地区的居民迁移到安全地区。这种迁移的结果是减少了森林向其他土地用途的转化。战争结束后，森林砍伐和森林退化的趋势加剧。除了居民返回以及对粮食和农业发展的需求增加之外，造成这种破坏的原因还包括破坏森林和自然资源的监管和控制基础设施。此外，战后，政府的注意力集中在满足人类社会的需求上。因此，对自然资源退化的监测和控制没有给予足够的重视。因此，有必要通过准确和详细的规划来减少居民对自然资源的依赖，并增加他们对森林保护的参与。在这方面，应大力继续保护计划。对监测和控制自然资源退化的重视不够。因此，有必要通过准确和详细的规划减少居民对自然资源的依赖，并增加他们对森林保护的参与。在这方面，应大力继续保护计划。对监测和控制自然资源退化的重视不够。因此，有必要通过准确和详细的规划减少居民对自然资源的依赖，并增加他们对森林保护的参与。在这方面，应大力继续保护计划。