Abstract In this research, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) and the Input-Output (I–O) models were used to explore the determinants of coal consumption change during 1999–2018 in Pakistan. Some novel factors industrial structure, energy intensity (EI), economic scale, energy mix, and personified coal consumption were chosen and added to the LMDI and I–O models. The aim is to estimate the factors’ effects of various sectors that might provide a new way for policy-makers. The results show: (1) the variations in the driving factors industrial, cement, Brick-kilns, and power sectors are growing. (2) The industrial structure effect increasing coal consumption significantly, while energy mix and EI are growing energy efficiency from 2014 to 2018. The economic scale effects played a major role in coal consumption during 1999–2018, while EI, industrial, and energy mix have mixed effects. (3) The economic scale is the only factor which is stable and increasing Pakistan’s coal consumption. (4) From the LMDI, the economic scale effect is stable while I–O expresses that EI, energy mix and a trend in the industrial structure effects are key motives in boosting in coal consumption. It is suggested coal reserve of 185.175 billion tons can significantly improve social, economic, and energy in Pakistan.

中文翻译：

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巴基斯坦的煤炭和经济发展：能源的必要性

摘要 本研究利用对数平均迪维西亚指数（LMDI）和投入产出（I-O）模型探索了巴基斯坦1999-2018年煤炭消费变化的决定因素。选择了一些新的因素产业结构、能源强度（EI）、经济规模、能源结构和个性化煤炭消费，并将其添加到 LMDI 和 I-O 模型中。目的是估计可能为决策者提供新方法的各部门因素的影响。结果表明：（1）工业、水泥、砖窑、电力等行业驱动因素的变化正在扩大。(2) 2014-2018 年，产业结构对煤炭消费增长的影响显着，能源结构和能源效率在提高能源效率。经济规模效应在 1999-2018 年煤炭消费中起主要作用，而能源结构和能源效率在 工业和能源组合具有混合效应。(3)经济规模是巴基斯坦煤炭消费量稳定增长的唯一因素。(4) 从LMDI来看，经济规模效应是稳定的，而I-O表示EI、能源结构和产业结构效应的趋势是推动煤炭消费增长的关键动因。建议煤炭储量1851.75亿吨，可显着改善巴基斯坦的社会、经济和能源状况。