Abstract Studies focusing on 100% renewable energy systems have emerged in recent years; however, existing studies tend to focus only on the power sector using exploratory approaches. This paper therefore undertakes a whole-system approach and explores optimal pathways towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. The analysis is carried out for Ireland, which currently has the highest share of variable renewable electricity on a synchronous power system. Large numbers of scenarios are developed using the Irish TIMES model to address uncertainties. Results show that compared to decarbonization targets, focusing on renewable penetration without considering carbon capture options is significantly less cost effective in carbon mitigation. Alternative assumptions on bioenergy imports and maximum variability in power generation lead to very different energy mixes in bioenergy and electrification levels. All pathways suggest that indigenous bioenergy needs to be fully exploited and the current annual deployment rate of renewable electricity needs a boost. Pathways relying on international bioenergy imports are slightly cheaper and faces less economic and technical challenges. However, given the large future uncertainties, it is recommended that further policy considerations be given to pathways with high electrification levels as they are more robust towards uncertainties.

中文翻译：

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到 2050 年，爱尔兰实现 100% 可再生能源的成本最低的能源系统途径

摘要 近年来出现了针对 100% 可再生能源系统的研究。然而，现有的研究往往只关注使用探索性方法的电力部门。因此，本文采用全系统方法，探索到 2050 年实现 100% 可再生能源的最佳途径。该分析针对爱尔兰进行，爱尔兰目前在同步电力系统中拥有最高的可变可再生电力份额。使用爱尔兰 TIMES 模型开发了大量情景以解决不确定性。结果表明，与脱碳目标相比，专注于可再生能源渗透而不考虑碳捕获选项在碳减排方面的成本效益明显较低。关于生物能源进口和发电量最大可变性的替代假设导致生物能源和电气化水平的能源组合非常不同。所有途径都表明需要充分利用本土生物能源，目前可再生电力的年度部署率需要提高。依赖国际生物能源进口的途径稍微便宜一些，面临的经济和技术挑战也较少。然而，鉴于未来存在较大的不确定性，建议对电气化水平较高的路径进行进一步的政策考虑，因为它们对不确定性更加稳健。依赖国际生物能源进口的途径稍微便宜一些，面临的经济和技术挑战也较少。然而，鉴于未来存在较大的不确定性，建议对电气化水平较高的路径进行进一步的政策考虑，因为它们对不确定性更加稳健。依赖国际生物能源进口的途径稍微便宜一些，面临的经济和技术挑战也较少。然而，鉴于未来存在较大的不确定性，建议对电气化水平较高的路径进行进一步的政策考虑，因为它们对不确定性更加稳健。