This paper presents an on-board advance warning system for vehicles based on a probabilistic prediction model that advises them on when to change lanes to reach a highway diverge on time. The system is based on a model that estimates the probability of reaching a goal state on the road using one or multiple lane changes. This estimate is based on several traffic-related parameters such as the distribution of inter-vehicle headway distances as well as driver-related parameters like lane change duration. For an upcoming diverge, the advance warning system uses the model to continuously calculate the probability of reaching it and advise the driver to change lanes when the probability dips below a certain threshold. To evaluate the performance of the proposed system in reducing traffic delay at highway diverges, it was used on a segment of a four-lane highway to advise vehicles taking an off-ramp on when to change lanes. Results show that using the proposed system reduces average delay up to 6% and maximum delay up to 16%, depending on traffic flow and the ratio of vehicles taking the off-ramp.

中文翻译：

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使用基于概率预测模型的预警系统减少高速公路岔路口的交通延误

本文提出了一种基于概率预测模型的车载预警系统，该系统建议他们何时改变车道以准时到达高速公路分岔路口。该系统基于一个模型，该模型使用一个或多个车道变换来估计在道路上达到目标状态的概率。该估计基于几个与交通相关的参数，例如车辆间车距的分布以及与驾驶员相关的参数，例如换道持续时间。对于即将到来的分叉，预警系统使用该模型不断计算到达的概率，并在概率低于某个阈值时建议驾驶员改变车道。为了评估所提出的系统在减少高速公路分岔口交通延误方面的性能，它被用于一条四车道高速公路的一段，以告知驶入匝道的车辆何时改变车道。结果表明，根据交通流量和驶出匝道的车辆比例，使用所提出的系统将平均延迟降低至 6%，最大延迟降低至 16%。