Some cope better than others Increasingly, research is revealing how organisms may, or may not, adapt to a changing climate. Understanding the limitations placed by a species's physiology can help to determine whether it has an immediate potential to deal with rapid change. Many studies have looked at physiological tolerance to climate change in fishes, with results indicating a range of responses. Dahlke et al. conducted a meta-analysis to explore how life stage may influence a species's ability to tolerate temperature change (see the Perspective by Sunday). They found that embryos and breeding adult fishes are much more susceptible to temperature change than those in other life stages and that this factor must therefore be considered in evaluations of susceptibility. Science, this issue p. 65; see also p. 35 Thermal tolerance metrics for 694 marine and freshwater fish species reveal that breeding stages are most vulnerable to climate warming. Species’ vulnerability to climate change depends on the most temperature-sensitive life stages, but for major animal groups such as fish, life cycle bottlenecks are often not clearly defined. We used observational, experimental, and phylogenetic data to assess stage-specific thermal tolerance metrics for 694 marine and freshwater fish species from all climate zones. Our analysis shows that spawning adults and embryos consistently have narrower tolerance ranges than larvae and nonreproductive adults and are most vulnerable to climate warming. The sequence of stage-specific thermal tolerance corresponds with the oxygen-limitation hypothesis, suggesting a mechanistic link between ontogenetic changes in cardiorespiratory (aerobic) capacity and tolerance to temperature extremes. A logarithmic inverse correlation between the temperature dependence of physiological rates (development and oxygen consumption) and thermal tolerance range is proposed to reflect a fundamental, energetic trade-off in thermal adaptation. Scenario-based climate projections considering the most critical life stages (spawners and embryos) clearly identify the temperature requirements for reproduction as a critical bottleneck in the life cycle of fish. By 2100, depending on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario followed, the percentages of species potentially affected by water temperatures exceeding their tolerance limit for reproduction range from ~10% (SSP 1–1.9) to ~60% (SSP 5–8.5). Efforts to meet ambitious climate targets (SSP 1–1.9) could therefore benefit many fish species and people who depend on healthy fish stocks.

中文翻译：

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生命周期中的热瓶颈定义了鱼类的气候脆弱性

有些人比其他人更好地应对越来越多的研究揭示了生物体如何适应或不适应不断变化的气候。了解物种生理的局限性有助于确定它是否具有应对快速变化的直接潜力。许多研究着眼于鱼类对气候变化的生理耐受性，结果表明了一系列反应。达尔克等人。进行了一项荟萃分析，以探讨生命阶段如何影响物种耐受温度变化的能力（参见周日透视）。他们发现胚胎和成年鱼比其他生命阶段的鱼更容易受到温度变化的影响，因此在评估敏感性时必须考虑这一因素。科学，这个问题 p。65; 另见第 35 694 种海洋和淡水鱼类的耐热性指标显示，繁殖阶段最容易受到气候变暖的影响。物种对气候变化的脆弱性取决于对温度最敏感的生命阶段，但对于鱼类等主要动物群体，生命周期瓶颈往往没有明确定义。我们使用观察、实验和系统发育数据来评估来自所有气候区的 694 种海洋和淡水鱼类的特定阶段的耐热性指标。我们的分析表明，产卵成虫和胚胎的耐受范围始终比幼虫和非生殖成虫更窄，并且最容易受到气候变暖的影响。阶段特定热耐受性的顺序与限氧假设一致，表明心肺（有氧）能力的个体发生变化与对极端温度的耐受性之间存在机械联系。提出了生理速率（发育和耗氧量）的温度依赖性与热耐受范围之间的对数反相关，以反映热适应中的基本的、能量的权衡。考虑到最关键生命阶段（产卵和胚胎）的基于情景的气候预测清楚地将繁殖的温度要求确定为鱼类生命周期中的关键瓶颈。到 2100 年，根据所遵循的共享社会经济途径 (SSP) 情景，可能受水温影响的物种百分比超过其繁殖容忍限度的范围从 ~10% (SSP 1–1.9) 到 ~60% (SSP 5–8.5) ）。