Global climate change is shifting many species’ phenology and has created a number of key mismatches that threaten population persistence. Phenotypically plastic individuals have the ability to adjust their behaviour in response to environmental change. While phenotypic plasticity may serve as a buffer, it is generally not known whether in case this plasticity is insufficient there is additive genetic variation in the phenological trait so that populations’ may also show an evolutionary response. We show that hibernation emergence date of yellow-bellied marmots ( Marmota flaviventer ), a trait that has been significantly advancing in recent years and is associated with increased spring temperature, is phenotypically plastic. Furthermore, we used the quantitative genetic ‘animal model’ to decompose variation in emergence date and show there is significant heritable variation. We infer that so far phenotypic plasticity has allowed marmots to track the environmental changes leading to earlier emergence and suggest that in the short run, marmots may be able to continue to plastically respond to environmental change and thus that this trait potentially can evolve when the plasticity no longer buffers the selection for earlier emergence.

中文翻译：

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从冬眠中苏醒的时间的遗传变异

全球气候变化正在改变许多物种的物候，并造成了许多威胁种群持久性的关键不匹配。表型上的塑料个体有能力根据环境变化调整自己的行为。虽然表型可塑性可以作为缓冲，但通常不知道在这种可塑性不足的情况下，物候性状中是否存在附加遗传变异，因此种群也可能表现出进化反应。我们表明，黄腹土拨鼠（ Marmota flaviventer ）的冬眠出现日期是近年来显着进步并与春季温度升高有关的性状，在表型上具有可塑性。此外，我们使用数量遗传“动物模型”来分解出苗日期的变异，并表明存在显着的遗传变异。我们推断，到目前为止，表型可塑性允许土拨鼠追踪导致早期出现的环境变化，并表明在短期内，土拨鼠可能能够继续对环境变化做出可塑性反应，因此当可塑性发生变化时，这种性状可能会进化。不再缓冲早期出现的选择。