This study is the first attempt to apply fault-based and time-dependent seismicity models cooperatively for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of the Kerman and adjacent areas (54–59° E, 28.5–34° N). For this study, almost all available literature and databases have been investigated to compile reliable information reported as instrumental, historical, and paleoseismological events, together with the geometry and kinematics information for active faults. This information systematically is integrated and contributed to PSHA. Conditional probabilities of occurrence for earthquakes greater than the maximum earthquake from which its standard deviation is deducted (M > M_max − σ_Mmax) are computed based on a Brownian passage time (BPT) model. The spatial distribution of the time-dependent peak ground acceleration (PGA) has been calculated, and spectral accelerations have been computed for three selected cities (Kerman, Rafsanjan, Ravar), with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The time-dependent PSHA map for PGA shows variations from − 21 along the Gowk fault to + 32% near the Sabzevaran fault segments in comparison with the corresponding time-independent PGAs. The difference between the time-dependent and time-independent PGAs at most parts of the study area is negligible, especially at sites farther away from the faults, where the differences vary from − 7 to + 7%. Moreover, the difference between the time-dependent and time-independent spectral accelerations for Ravar and Rafsanjan cities is insignificant. However, this difference at periods of 0.1–0.3 s is significant in Kerman city. The results of this study provide a stimulus for considering time-dependency assumption and fault-based approach in future earthquake-resistant constructions required in Kerman and adjacent areas.

这项研究是首次尝试将基于断层和时变的地震活动性模型合作用于克尔曼及邻近地区（54-59°E，28.5-34°N）的概率地震危险性评估（PSHA）。对于本研究，已经对几乎所有可用的文献和数据库进行了调查，以汇编报告为仪器，历史和古地震事件的可靠信息，以及活动断层的几何和运动学信息。该信息被系统地集成并有助于PSHA。发生的条件概率为地震比供它的标准偏差减去（最大地震更大中号 > 中号_最大 -  σ _M最大）是根据布朗通过时间（BPT）模型计算的。已计算出了随时间变化的地面加速度峰值（PGA）的空间分布，并计算了三个选定城市（克尔曼，拉夫桑扬，拉瓦尔）的频谱加速度，其在50年内超出概率为10％。与相应的与时间无关的PGA相比，用于PGA的时间相关的PSHA图显示了从沿着Gowk断层的− 21到Sabzevaran断层段附近的+ 32％的变化。在研究区域的大部分地区，时间相关和时间无关的PGA之间的差异可以忽略不计，尤其是在离断层较远的位置，差异在-7到+ 7％之间。而且，拉瓦尔和拉夫桑延城市的时间相关和时间无关的频谱加速度之间的差异不明显。然而，在克尔曼市，这种差异在0.1到0.3 s的时间内非常明显。这项研究的结果为考虑在克尔曼和邻近地区未来的抗震建筑中考虑时间依赖假设和基于故障的方法提供了动力。