Many river basins in the Global South are undergoing rapid development with major implications for the interdependent water‐energy‐food‐environmental (WEFE) “nexus” sectors. A range of views on the extent to which such natural‐human systems should be developed typically exists. The perceived best investments in river basins depend on how one frames the planning problem. Therefore, we propose an approach where the best possible (optimized) implementations of different river basin development scenarios are assessed by comparing their WEFE sector trade‐offs. We apply the approach to Tanzania's Rufiji river basin, an area with multiple WEFE interdependencies and high development potential (irrigation and hydropower) and ecosystem services. Performance indicators are identified through stakeholder consultation and describe WEFE sector response under scenarios of river basin development. Results show considerable potential exists for energy and irrigation expansion. Designs that prioritize energy production adversely affect environmental performance; however, part of the negative impacts can be minimized through release rules designed to replicate the natural variability of flow. The reliability of monthly energy generation is more sensitive to environmental‐oriented management than the cumulative annual energy production. Overall results highlight how sectoral trade‐offs change depending on the extent of development, something that may be difficult to regulate in the future, and that there are important basin‐scale interdependencies. Benefits and limitations of the approach and its application are discussed.

中文翻译：

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在水，能源，食品，环境相互依赖的情况下评估流域发展

全球南方的许多流域正在快速发展，这对相互依存的水，能源，食品，环境（WEFE）“联系”部门具有重大影响。通常，人们对应该开发这种自然人系统的程度存在各种看法。人们认为流域的最佳投资取决于人们如何规划规划问题。因此，我们提出了一种方法，通过比较它们在WEFE部门的权衡取舍，来评估不同流域开发方案的最佳（最佳）实施方案。我们将该方法应用于坦桑尼亚的Rufiji流域，该地区具有多个WEFE相互依存关系，并且具有很高的发展潜力（灌溉和水力发电）和生态系统服务。绩效指标是通过利益相关者协商确定的，并描述了流域开发情景下WEFE部门的反应。结果表明，在能源和灌溉方面存在巨大潜力。优先考虑能源生产的设计会对环境绩效产生不利影响；但是，通过设计用于复制流量自然变化的释放规则，可以将部分负面影响最小化。每月能源生产的可靠性比年度累计能源生产对环境管理更为敏感。总体结果突显了部门之间的权衡如何根据发展程度而变化，这在未来可能难以监管，并且存在重要的流域规模相互依存关系。