The artificial impoundment of water behind dams causes global mean sea level (GMSL) to fall as reservoirs fill but also generates a local rise in sea level due to the increased mass in the reservoir and the crustal deformation this mass induces. To estimate spatiotemporal fluctuations in sea level due to water impoundment, we use a historical data set that includes 6,329 reservoirs completed between 1900 and 2011, as well as projections of 3,565 reservoirs that are expected to be completed by 2040. The GMSL change associated with the historical data (−0.2 mm yr⁻¹ from 1900–2011) is consistent with previous studies, but the temporal and spatial resolution allows for local studies that were not previously possible, revealing that some locations experience a sea level rise of as much as 40 mm over less than a decade. Future construction of reservoirs through ~2040 is projected to cause a GMSL fall whose rate is comparable to that of the last century (−0.3 mm yr⁻¹) but with a geographic distribution that will be distinct from the last century, including a rise in sea level in more coastal areas. The analysis of expected construction shows that significant impoundment near coastal communities in the coming decades could enhance the flooding risk already heightened by global sea level rise.

中文翻译：

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人工蓄水引起的海平面变化的空间变化时间序列


水坝后面的人工蓄水会导致全球平均海平面（GMSL）随着水库填满而下降，但由于水库质量增加以及该质量引起的地壳变形，也会导致局部海平面上升。为了估计蓄水造成的海平面时空波动，我们使用了历史数据集，其中包括 1900 年至 2011 年间竣工的 6,329 个水库，以及预计到 2040 年竣工的 3,565 个水库的预测。 GMSL 变化与历史数据（1900年至2011年−0.2毫米年⁻¹ ）与之前的研究一致，但时间和空间分辨率允许进行以前不可能进行的局部研究，表明一些地点的海平面上升了多达40 ——不到十年的时间。预计到 2040 年，未来水库建设将导致 GMSL 下降，其下降速度与上世纪相当（−0.3 mm yr ^-1 ），但地理分布将与上世纪不同，包括更多沿海地区的海平面。对预期建设的分析表明，未来几十年沿海社区附近的大量蓄水可能会加剧因全球海平面上升而加剧的洪水风险。