We analyze projected changes in climate extremes (extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation) in the multimodel ensembles of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results reveal close similarity between both ensembles in the regional climate sensitivity of the projected multimodel mean changes in climate extremes, that is, their projected changes as a function of global warming. This stands in contrast to widely reported divergences in global (transient and equilibrium) climate sensitivity in the two multimodel ensembles. Some exceptions include higher warming in the South America monsoon region, lower warming in Southern Asia and Central Africa, and higher increases in heavy precipitation in Western Africa and the Sahel region in the CMIP6 ensemble. The multimodel spread in regional climate sensitivity is found to be large in both ensembles. In particular, it contributes more to intermodel spread in projected regional climate extremes compared with the intermodel spread in global climate sensitivity in CMIP6. Our results highlight the need to consider regional climate sensitivity as a distinct feature of Earth system models and a key determinant of projected regional impacts, which is largely independent of the models' response in global climate sensitivity.

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CMIP6 与 CMIP5 多模式系综中极端气候的区域气候敏感性


我们分析了第五和第六耦合模式比对项目（CMIP5 和 CMIP6）的多模式集合中极端气候（极端气温和强降水）的预计变化。结果揭示了两个集合在预测的多模式平均极端气候变化的区域气候敏感性方面非常相似，即它们作为全球变暖函数的预测变化。这与广泛报道的两个多模式集合的全球（瞬态和平衡）气候敏感性差异形成鲜明对比。 CMIP6 集合中的一些例外情况包括南美季风地区变暖程度较高、南亚和中非变暖程度较低以及西非和萨赫勒地区强降水增加较多。发现两个集合中区域气候敏感性的多模式分布都很大。特别是，与 CMIP6 中全球气候敏感性的模型间扩散相比，它对预测区域气候极端事件的模型间扩散贡献更大。我们的结果强调需要将区域气候敏感性视为地球系统模型的显着特征和预测区域影响的关键决定因素，这在很大程度上独立于模型对全球气候敏感性的响应。