As part of ship acquisition decision making, owners and key stakeholders need to evaluate ship design and technology solutions across economic and environmental criteria in addition to safety and other regulatory requirements. Changes in technology, market, fiscal and other regulatory conditions may furthermore significantly influence value retention over the investment period. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) provides structure and clarity in otherwise complex decision problems, allowing decision makers to identify promising courses of action in a holistic manner. Combined with stochastic evaluation techniques, MCDM may facilitate problem exploration and learning in situations where outcomes are uncertain. In this article, we combine two variants of “Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis” (SMAA) with “Technique for Ordering of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution” (TOPSIS) to evaluate the use of biofuels, natural gas and electricity on Norwegian ferry crossings. We analyze uncertain criteria values for environmental impacts, costs, fuel access and public acceptance across seven ferry combinations for a crossing. Criteria weighting is performed deterministically and stochastically to extract and interpret the conditions under which alternatives perform well or poorly. The case study shows that all-electric propulsion is preferable, while plug-in hybrid solutions with natural gas also give a robust performance. The approach is beneficial in handling multiple, uncertain performance metrics and provides a transparent and holistic foundation for evaluating marine emission reduction technology options in ship acquisition decision contexts.

作为船舶采购决策的一部分，船东和主要利益相关者除了安全和其他监管要求外，还需要根据经济和环境标准评估船舶设计和技术解决方案。技术，市场，财政和其他监管条件的变化可能进一步严重影响投资期内的价值保留。多准则决策（MCDM）为复杂的决策问题提供了结构和清晰度，使决策者能够以整体方式确定有希望的行动方案。结合随机评估技术，MCDM可以在不确定结果的情况下促进问题探索和学习。在这篇文章中，我们将“随机多准则可接受性分析”（SMAA）和“通过类似于理想解决方案的偏好排序技术”（TOPSIS）的两种变体结合起来，以评估挪威渡轮口对生物燃料，天然气和电力的使用情况。我们分析了跨越一个渡口的七个渡轮组合的环境影响，成本，燃料获取和公众接受度的不确定标准值。确定性和随机性地执行标准加权，以提取和解释替代项表现良好或不良的条件。案例研究表明，全电动推进是可取的，而天然气的插电式混合动力解决方案也具有强大的性能。该方法在处理多个，