In today’s world, urban systems play an important role in sustainable economic development. In particular, urbanisation trends and the increasing demands of urban mobility place additional pressure on existing transportation infrastructure, and this creates new challenges for urban planners in terms of developing integrated and sustainable urban mobility policies. Here, we take a novel and holistic approach to analysing transformative pathways towards sustainable urban mobility, considering the complex dynamics in metropolitan regions. To achieve this, we develop a toolset to assess the impact of potential measures to be taken by decision makers. Our innovative approach is based on the introduction of a new system framework to link the interrelated sector parameters of mobility systems by considering the effects of innovative mixed methods (both qualitative and quantitative) on scenario development and evaluation on the basis of global trends at the macro scale and their specific influences on the mobility sector at the local scale. To this end, we used a participatory modelling approach to develop scenarios and evaluate them as integrated simulation runs via a comprehensive and holistic system dynamics (SD) model. Thus, we estimated dynamic interdependencies between all of the factors relating to the mobility sector and then assigned business decision-making criteria to the urban systems. Furthermore, we introduced a sustainable net present value framework to estimate the sustainability outcomes of government investment in urban mobility infrastructure. A case study relating to the Rhine-Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region in Germany was applied in order to simulate four scenarios co-created with stakeholders involved in our study, namely, Smart City, Sustainable/Healthy City, Deurbanisation and Business-as-Usual (BaU), which served as a solid basis from which to quantify path dependencies in terms of policy implementation. At the same time, recommendations were derived for sustainable mobility transformation within metropolitan regions.

当今世界，城市系统在经济可持续发展中发挥着重要作用。特别是，城市化趋势和不断增长的城市交通需求给现有交通基础设施带来了额外的压力，这给城市规划者制定综合和可持续的城市交通政策带来了新的挑战。在这里，我们考虑到大都市地区的复杂动态，采用新颖且整体的方法来分析可持续城市交通的变革路径。为了实现这一目标，我们开发了一套工具来评估决策者可能采取的措施的影响。我们的创新方法基于引入新的系统框架，通过考虑创新混合方法（定性和定量）对基于宏观全球趋势的情景开发和评估的影响，将移动系统的相互关联的部门参数联系起来规模及其对当地流动部门的具体影响。为此，我们使用参与式建模方法来开发场景，并通过全面且整体的系统动力学 (SD) 模型将其作为集成仿真运行进行评估。因此，我们估计了与出行部门相关的所有因素之间的动态相互依赖性，然后将业务决策标准分配给城市系统。此外，我们引入了可持续净现值框架来估计政府投资城市交通基础设施的可持续性成果。 应用与德国莱茵-莱茵-鲁尔大都市区相关的案例研究，以模拟与参与研究的利益相关者共同创建的四种情景，即智慧城市、可持续/健康城市、去城市化和一切如常（BaU），它为量化政策实施方面的路径依赖性奠定了坚实的基础。同时，还提出了大都市地区可持续交通转型的建议。