Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a methodology used to organize and analyze scientific information to both estimate the probability and severity of an adverse event as well as prioritize efforts to reduce the risk of foodborne pathogens. No QMRA efforts have been applied to Campylobacter in the Australian chicken meat sector. Hence, we present a QMRA model of human campylobacteriosis related to the occurrence of cross-contamination while handling raw chicken meat in Western Australia (WA). This work fills a gap in Campylobacter risk characterization in Australia and enables benchmarking against risk assessments undertaken in other countries. The model predicted the average probability of the occurrence of illness per serving of salad that became cross-contaminated from being handled following the handling of fresh chicken meat as 7.0 × 10⁻⁴ (90% Confidence Interval [CI] ± 4.7 × 10⁻⁵). The risk assessment model was utilized to estimate the likely impact of intervention scenarios on the predicted probability of illness (campylobacteriosis) per serving. Predicted relative risk reductions following changes in the retail prevalence of Campylobacter were proportional to the percentage desired in the reduction scenario; a target that is aiming to reduce the current baseline prevalence of Campylobacter in retail chicken by 30% is predicted to yield approximately 30% relative risk reduction. A simulated one-log reduction in the mean concentration of Campylobacter is anticipated to generate approximately 20% relative risk reductions. Relative risk reduction induced by a one-log decrease in the mean was equally achieved when the tail of the input distribution was affected—that is, by a change (one-log reduction) in the standard deviation of the baseline Campylobacter concentration. A scenario assuming a 5% point decrease in baseline probability of cross-contamination at the consumer phase would yield relative risk reductions of 14%, which is as effective as the impact of a strategic target of 10% reduction in the retail prevalence of Campylobacter. In conclusion, the present model simulates the probability of illness predicted for an average individual who consumes salad that has been cross-contaminated with Campylobacter from retail chicken meat in WA. Despite some uncertainties, this is the first attempt to utilize the QMRA approach as a scientific basis to guide risk managers toward implementing strategies to reduce the risk of human campylobacteriosis in an Australian context.

定量微生物风险评估（QMRA）是一种用于组织和分析科学信息的方法，既可以估算不良事件的可能性和严重性，也可以优先减少降低食源性病原体风险的工作。没有QMRA措施应用于澳大利亚鸡肉领域的弯曲杆菌。因此，我们提出了人类弯曲杆菌病的QMRA模型，该模型与在西澳大利亚州（WA）处理生鸡肉时发生的交叉污染有关。这项工作填补了弯曲杆菌中的空白在澳大利亚进行风险特征分析，并可以对照其他国家进行的风险评估进行基准测试。该模型预测每份沙拉在新鲜鸡肉处理后被交叉污染的疾病发生的平均概率为7.0×10 ^-4（90％置信区间[CI]±4.7×10 ^-5）。风险评估模型用于估计干预方案对每份疾病的预测可能性（弯曲杆菌病）的可能影响。弯曲杆菌零售率发生变化后，预计相对风险降低与降低场景中所需的百分比成正比；旨在降低当前基线患病率的目标预计零售鸡肉中的弯曲杆菌可降低30％的相对风险。弯曲菌平均浓度的模拟单对数降低预计将产生约20％的相对风险降低。当输入分布的尾部受到影响时，即通过平均弯曲杆菌浓度标准偏差的变化（降低一对数），同样可以平均降低一对数所引起的相对风险降低。假设在消费者阶段交叉污染的基线概率降低5％个点的场景将产生14％的相对风险降低，其效果与降低零售率10％的战略目标的影响一样有效。弯曲杆菌。总之，本模型模拟了食用从华盛顿州零售鸡肉中被弯曲杆菌交叉污染的沙拉的普通人预测的疾病概率。尽管存在一些不确定性，但这是首次尝试将QMRA方法用作科学基础，以指导风险管理者在澳大利亚实施降低人类弯曲菌病风险的策略。