Coastal flood impact assessments are important tools for risk management and are performed by combining the hazard component with the vulnerability of exposed assets, to quantify consequences (or impacts) in terms of relative or absolute (e.g. financial) damage. The process generates uncertainties that should be taken into account for the correct representation of the consequences of floods. This study presents a coastal flood impact application at the spatial level of the Stavanger municipality (Norway), based on a multi-damage model approach able to represent impacts, and their overall uncertainty. Hazard modelling was performed using the LISFLOOD-FP code, taking into account historical extreme water level events (1988–2017) and relative sea level rise scenarios. Direct impacts were calculated in the form of relative and financial damage for different building categories, using flood damage curves. The results showed that the expected impacts are fewer than 50 flooded receptors and less than €1 million in damage in the current sea level scenario. The impacts could double by the end of the century, considering the most optimistic relative sea level scenario. The results were discussed considering the limitations of the approach for both hazard and impact modelling, that will be improved in future implementations. The outcome of this study may be useful for cost–benefit analyses of mitigation actions and local-scale plans for adaptation.

中文翻译：

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半概率沿海洪水影响分析：从确定性灾害到多重损害模型影响

沿海洪水影响评估是风险管理的重要工具，通过将灾害成分与暴露资产的脆弱性相结合来执行，以量化相对或绝对（例如财务）损害的后果（或影响）。该过程会产生不确定性，为了正确表示洪水的后果，应考虑到这些不确定性。本研究基于能够表示影响及其总体不确定性的多重损害模型方法，提出了斯塔万格市（挪威）空间层面的沿海洪水影响应用。使用 LISFLOOD-FP 代码进行灾害建模，并考虑历史极端水位事件（1988-2017）和相对海平面上升情景。使用洪水损失曲线，以不同建筑类别的相对损失和财务损失的形式计算直接影响。结果显示，在当前海平面情景下，预计受影响的接收器将少于 50 个，损失将少于 100 万欧元。考虑到最乐观的相对海平面情景，到本世纪末，影响可能会增加一倍。考虑到危险和影响建模方法的局限性，讨论了结果，这些局限性将在未来的实施中得到改进。这项研究的结果可能有助于缓解行动和地方规模适应计划的成本效益分析。