Promoting the decarbonisation of buildings requires effective policy measures. An integral part of policy design is ex-ante evaluation of possible policy options and effects. System Dynamics, one of a range of potential modelling paradigms, emphasises the dynamic complexity arising from stock-and-flow structures, feedbacks, non-linearities and time lags of the system in question. It is therefore well placed to model building stock turnover dynamics and the associated energy use and carbon emissions, in order to conduct scenario analysis for policy evaluation. Previous efforts to employ System Dynamics based models in buildings in various national contexts are found to have some common fundamental structural and behavioural limitations. We present an improved formulation that includes both building stock disaggregation and dynamics of energy-related retrofits. The model is characterised by greater transparency facilitating reproducibility and further improvements, high structural and functional flexibility for either extensions or reductions depending upon needs, and high generality and adaptability in diverse applications. It can be used as a stand-alone model or as part of a larger model for policy evaluation and scenario analysis exploring the transformation of building stock from improving energy efficiency and shifting towards low-carbon development.

促进建筑物的脱碳需要有效的政策措施。政策设计的组成部分是事前评估可能的政策选择和效果。系统动力学是一系列潜在的建模范例之一，它着重强调了由相关系统的库存和流量结构，反馈，非线性和时滞引起的动态复杂性。因此，它可以很好地模拟建筑存量周转动态以及相关的能源使用和碳排放量，以便进行情景分析以进行政策评估。发现先前在各种国家环境中在建筑物中采用基于系统动力学的模型的努力具有一些共同的基本结构和行为限制。我们提出了一种改进的方法，包括建筑材料分解和与能源有关的改造动态。该模型的特点是透明度更高，可促进可重复性和进一步的改进；结构和功能的灵活性很高，可以根据需要进行扩展或缩减，并且在各种应用程序中具有很高的通用性和适应性。它可以用作独立模型，也可以用作更大模型的一部分，用于政策评估和情景分析，探索建筑存量从提高能源效率到向低碳发展的转变。以及在各种应用中的高度通用性和适应性。它可以用作独立模型，也可以用作较大模型的一部分，用于政策评估和情景分析，探索建筑存量从提高能源效率到向低碳发展的转变。以及在各种应用中的高度通用性和适应性。它可以用作独立模型，也可以用作较大模型的一部分，用于政策评估和情景分析，探索建筑存量从提高能源效率到向低碳发展的转变。