Abstract

Pomacea species, also known as apple snails, are highly invasive freshwater organisms now occurring in Central and North America, Asia and Europe. Species misidentification within the genus has hampered efforts to manage their spread and impact, and thus Pomacea maculata have received much less attention that P. canaliculata. Species Distribution Models are well suited for a global screening for suitable regions for the establishment of apple snails. Here, a global distribution model for the distribution of P. maculata based on an extensive database allowed us to identify current and future potential receptor freshwater ecoregions (FEOws) and to set priorities for the development of early warning strategies under climate change scenarios. Model performance was adequate, predicting accurately most invaded FEOWs across the world. Performing a global balance for climate change scenarios, and considering only FEOWs with medium and high ecoregional susceptibility (ES), the potential native distribution of P. maculata is reduced in ca. 945,701 km², while the exotic potential distribution area increases in 1,118,111 km². To minimize risks of future invasions, uninvaded FEOWs with both high values of ES and a predicted increase in environmental quality for the establishment of P. maculata were identified across the globe. The development of early warning schemes aiming to detect the initial phase of invasions may provide a unique opportunity for control of this highly invasive species before a much damage to the socio-ecological system is inflicted.

中文翻译：

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入侵苹果蜗牛的潜在分布的生态区域级评估，1810年苹果天蛾（天麻：双翅目）：确定地理上明确的入侵管理重点

摘要

Pomacea种，也称为苹果蜗牛，是高度侵入性的淡水生物，目前在中美洲和北美洲，亚洲和欧洲出现。属内种误认已经阻碍了努力来管理他们的传播和影响，因而福寿螺斑已收到要少得多的注意，福寿螺。物种分布模型非常适合在全球范围内筛选建立苹果蜗牛的合适区域。在这里，一个全球分布模型，用于分布斑mac基于广泛的数据库，我们可以确定当前和未来的潜在受体淡水生态区（FEOws），并为气候变化情景下的预警策略制定优先级。模型的性能足够，可以准确地预测世界上最入侵的FEOW。执行用于气候变化情景的全局平衡，仅考虑具有中等和高生态区域易感性（ES）FEOWs，的电势分布天然P.斑在大约减小 945,701 km ²，而奇特的潜在分布区域增加了1,118,111 km ²。为了最大程度地减少未来入侵的风险，未入侵的FEOW具有很高的ES值和预计的环境质量提高，因此可以建立斑节对虾在全球范围内都有发现。旨在检测入侵初期的预警计划的发展可能为控制这种高度入侵的物种提供了独特的机会，从而可以避免对社会生态系统造成巨大破坏。