Natural protected areas (NPA) are portions of the Mexican territory where the original environment has not been modified and which are protected in order to conserve, restore, and develop biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the effectiveness of 18 NPA located within the Transmexican Volcanic Belt by analyzing deforestation and land use and land cover change (LULCC) between 2002 and 2014. An index of effectiveness (EI) was obtained by adding three parameters: (1) the percentage of the transformed area (TA%), (2) the rate of change inside the NPA (LULCC-R), and (3) the difference between the rate of change inside the NPA and outside (buffer). The sum of the three standardized parameters forms the EI, where NPA were classified as effective (index value > 2), weakly effective (index value between 1 and 2), and noneffective (index value < 1). In addition, we identified the most important transitions between categories of LULCC for each NPA. Only three NPA were classified as effective: Ciénegas de Lerma (EI = 2.29), Volcán Nevado de Colima (EI = 2.08), and Iztaccíhuatl-Popocatépetl (EI = 2.06). Eleven were weakly effective, and the remaining four were noneffective. Bosencheve was the least effective (with all parameters in 0). In terms of transition probabilities in each effectiveness class, effective NPA were characterized by transition probabilities of forest cover recovery. Weakly effective NPA presented exchange probabilities between forest cover and land use. Finally, in noneffective NPA, probabilities indicated transitions from forest cover to agricultural and livestock land use. Our results show that, in general, NPA are not currently effective in containing LULCC processes in the Transmexican Volcanic Belt.

中文翻译：

---

墨西哥跨墨西哥火山带的自然保护区对防止土地使用和土地覆被变化的有效性

自然保护区（NPA）是墨西哥领土的一部分，原始环境未经修改，因此受到保护，以保护，恢复和发展生物多样性。在这里，我们通过分析2002年至2014年之间的森林砍伐，土地利用和土地覆被变化（LULCC），评估了跨墨西哥火山带内18个NPA的有效性。通过添加三个参数获得有效性指数（EI）：（1）转换面积的百分比（TA％），（2）NPA内部的变化率（LULCC-R），以及（3）NPA内部和外部（缓冲区）的变化率之差。这三个标准化参数的总和形成EI，其中NPA分为有效（指数值> 2），弱有效（指数值介于1和2之间）和无效（指数值<1）。此外，我们确定了每个NPA的LULCC类别之间最重要的过渡。只有三个NPA被归类为有效的：Ciénegasde Lerma（EI = 2.29），VolcánNevado de Colima（EI = 2.08）和Iztaccíhuatl-Popocatépetl（EI = 2.06）。11个无效，其余4个无效。Bosencheve效果最低（所有参数均为0）。就每个有效性类别的过渡概率而言，有效的NPA以森林覆盖恢复的过渡概率为特征。无效的NPA表示森林覆盖率和土地利用之间的交换概率。最后，在无效的国家行动计划中，概率表明从森林覆盖向农业和牲畜土地利用过渡。我们的结果表明，总体而言，