Variable renewable energy (VRE) has undergone rapid development worldwide. Currently, VRE is gradually accepted as a regular power source to participate in the power market. However, due to the fluctuating and uncertain nature, the strategic offering behaviors of VRE generation companies (GENCOs), especially in terms of available capacity withholding, are difficult to supervise and regulate. To explore the hidden danger of VRE GENCOs’ strategic offering behaviors and the sequential impacts on the market operation, this paper proposes an analysis framework, which is built based on day-ahead and real-time two-stage markets, with multiperiod coupling. The bilevel model is utilized to analyze the decision-making process of the strategic VRE GENCOs. The bilevel model is nonlinear, which is then transformed into a mixed integer linear format by applying linearization methods. An illustrative example, with a high penetration of VREs, is proposed. The strategic offering behaviors of VRE GENCOs are comprehensively analyzed. The incurred efficiency loss and payment increase are discussed with various market settings. To demonstrate the effects of the regulatory policies on the VRE strategic offering behaviors, a deviation penalty policy imposed on the deviation of VRE outputs is also proposed and tested.

中文翻译：

---

电力市场竞争导致可变的可再生能源的效率损失

可变可再生能源（VRE）在全球范围内发展迅速。当前，VRE逐渐被接受为参与电源市场的常规电源。但是，由于波动性和不确定性，很难对VRE发电公司（GENCO）的战略提供行为进行监管，尤其是在可用容量扣留方面。为了探讨VRE GENCO的战略发行行为的隐患和对市场运作的顺序影响，本文提出了一个基于日前和实时两阶段市场并具有多周期耦合的分析框架。双层模型用于分析战略VRE GENCO的决策过程。双层模型是非线性的，然后通过应用线性化方法将其转换为混合整数线性格式。提出了一个具有较高VRE渗透率的说明性示例。全面分析了VRE GENCO的战略发行行为。在各种市场环境下讨论了效率损失和支付增加。为了证明监管政策对VRE战略发行行为的影响，还提出并测试了对VRE输出偏差施加的偏差惩罚政策。