This study used the bus incident data in Victoria, Australia to establish the relationship between operational characteristics and the safety performance of bus operators. A series of count models were investigated to account for methodological challenges, including excess zeros and panel data structure. The empirical results highlighted the different effects operational characteristics had on the risk and prevalence of bus incidents. Operators of smaller size, providing non-route services and operating in regional areas had a lower risk of having any reported incidents compared with larger route operators and operators in areas of higher accessibility. In cases where at least one incident had been reported, incident frequency was higher for operators with higher fleet total travel distance, older fleets and better roadworthy performance (this factor being counterintuitive). Findings from this study provide safety regulators with evidence-driven opportunities to enhance bus safety, including improving incident reporting practices, the establishment of a comprehensive database for heavy vehicle operators, and specific efforts targeted at older fleets.

这项研究使用澳大利亚维多利亚州的公交车事故数据来建立运营特征与公交车运营商安全性能之间的关系。调查了一系列计数模型以解决方法挑战，包括多余的零和面板数据结构。实证结果强调了运营特征对公交车事故风险和患病率的不同影响。与较大的路线运营商和可及性较高的地区的运营商相比，规模较小，提供非路线服务且在区域范围内运营的运营商发生任何报告事件的风险较低。在报告至少发生了一次事故的情况下，机队总行驶距离较长的操作员的事故频率较高，机队更老，公路性能更好（这个因素违反直觉）。这项研究的结果为安全监管机构提供了以证据为依据的机会，以提高公交车的安全性，包括改进事故报告做法，为重型车辆操作员建立全面的数据库以及针对较旧车队的具体努力。