The new concept of virtual coupling (VC) envisages autonomous trains running in radio-connected platoons to significantly improve railway capacity and address the forecasted increase in railway demand. Such a concept will introduce radical changes to current train services, technologies, and procedures, which calls for a deeper understanding of the possible modes of operation and the impacts on the entire railway business. This paper investigates market potentials and operational scenarios of VC for different segments of the railway market: high-speed, main-line, regional, urban, and freight trains. The research builds on the Delphi method, with an extensive survey to collect expert opinions about benefits and challenges of VC as well as stated travel preferences in futuristic VC applications. Survey outcomes show that VC train operations can be very attractive to customers of the high-speed, main-line, and regional market segments, with benefits that are especially relevant for freight railways. In particular, customers of regional and freight railways are observed to be unsatisfied with current train services and willing to pay higher fares to avail of a more frequent and flexible service enabled by VC. Operational scenarios for VC are then defined by setting market-attractive service headways and by characteristics of the rolling stock, infrastructure, and traffic management. An analysis of strengths and weaknesses of such a concept together with business opportunities and threats is carried out. The defined VC future scenario is set to induce a sustainable shift of customers from other travel modes to the railways.

虚拟耦合（VC）的新概念设想，无人驾驶列车将在无线电连接排中运行，以显着提高铁路运输能力并应对铁路需求的增长预期。这样的概念将给当前的火车服务，技术和程序带来根本性的变化，这要求对可能的运营方式以及对整个铁路业务的影响有更深入的了解。本文研究了铁路市场不同细分市场（包括高速，干线，区域，城市和货运列车）的VC市场潜力和运营方案。该研究建立在Delphi方法的基础上，并进行了广泛的调查，以收集有关VC的好处和挑战以及未来VC应用中陈述的旅行偏好的专家意见。调查结果表明，VC火车运营对于高速，干线和区域市场细分的客户可能非常有吸引力，其优势与货运铁路特别相关。特别是，区域铁路和货运铁路的客户对当前的火车服务不满意，并且愿意为VC提供的更频繁，更灵活的服务支付更高的票价。然后，通过设置吸引市场的服务进展以及机车，基础设施和交通管理的特征来定义VC的操作方案。对这种概念的优点和缺点以及商业机会和威胁进行了分析。定义的VC未来方案旨在引导客户可持续地从其他出行方式转向铁路。