ABSTRACT

In 2015 and 2016, South Africa experienced a severe drought resulting in water restrictions and food price inflation. A year later, while the proportion of food secure households remained constant, the proportion of those experiencing severe food insecurity increased. This paper investigates the socio-economic determinants of increasing food insecurity during and after the drought. Two cross-sectional household surveys were carried out in the district of iLembe in November 2016 and 2017. Household food insecurity was measured using the Coping Strategies Index. The results indicated changes in socio-economic determinants of food insecurity over time, with the poorest households experiencing the worst levels of food insecurity. After the drought, having a child under-five years was positively associated with food insecurity, while being located in a rural area was negatively associated. Policies that limit household vulnerability to price inflation, and interventions that protect poorer households from the effects of drought should be considered.

摘要

2015 年和 2016 年，南非经历了严重干旱，导致水资源受限和食品价格上涨。一年后，虽然粮食安全家庭的比例保持不变，但经历严重粮食不安全的家庭比例有所增加。本文调查了干旱期间和之后粮食不安全加剧的社会经济决定因素。2016 年 11 月和 2017 年在 iLembe 区进行了两次横断面家庭调查。使用应对策略指数衡量家庭粮食不安全状况。结果表明，粮食不安全的社会经济决定因素随着时间的推移发生了变化，最贫困的家庭经历了最严重的粮食不安全水平。干旱之后，生育 5 岁以下的孩子与粮食不安全呈正相关，而位于农村地区则呈负相关。应考虑限制家庭对价格通胀的脆弱性的政策，以及保护贫困家庭免受干旱影响的干预措施。