Climate change is an emerging threat for biodiversity conservation. It has already started impacting species assemblages and ecosystem dynamics. The greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) is an iconic and globally threatened megaherbivore. Once widespread across the northern part of the Indian subcontinent, there were fewer than 500 rhinoceros during the early 1960s, confined to isolated patches of suitable habitats in the southern part of Nepal and northern foothills of India, including Brahmaputra floodplains. Following both governments’ successful conservation strategies, the species has been recovering, and its global population at present is over 3,500. However, the likely impacts of climate change has not been adequately incorporated into conservation plans for the species and may challenge this success. In this study, we developed a set of 21 vulnerability indicators and assessed the vulnerability of rhinoceros to climate change in Nepal through a review of literature, site observations of prime rhinoceros habitat, key informant interviews, a two-day stakeholders’ consultation workshop, and expert elucidation. Our findings suggest that rhinoceros in Nepal is likely to be ‘moderately vulnerable’ to the impacts of climate change, mainly due to (1) the likelihood of invasive plant species and severe floods in its prime habitat ‘Chitwan National Park’, and (2) fragmented habitat, small population size, droughts and forest fires in Bardia and Shuklaphanta National Parks. We further identified and recommended adaptation measures intended to enhance the resilience of rhinoceros to these likely threats.

气候变化是对生物多样性保护的新威胁。它已经开始影响物种集合和生态系统动态。更大的单角犀牛（Rhinoceros unicornis）是全球性的标志性巨型食肉动物。一旦分布在印度次大陆的北部，在1960年代初，犀牛数量不足500只，局限于尼泊尔南部和印度北部山麓（包括雅鲁藏布江洪泛区）的适宜栖息地的孤立地带。遵循两国政府成功的保护策略，该物种一直在恢复中，目前其全球人口已超过3500。但是，气候变化可能产生的影响尚未充分纳入该物种的保护计划，并可能挑战这一成功。在这项研究中，我们开发了一套21种脆弱性指标，并通过回顾文献，对主要犀牛栖息地进行现场观察，评估了尼泊尔犀牛对气候变化的脆弱性，关键线人访谈，为期两天的利益相关者咨询研讨会以及专家说明。我们的研究结果表明，尼泊尔的犀牛可能对气候变化的影响“中等脆弱”，这主要是由于（1）入侵其主要栖息地“奇旺国家公园”的植物物种和严重洪灾的可能性，以及（2 ）巴迪亚和舒克拉潘塔国家公园的栖息地零散，人口少，干旱和森林大火。我们进一步确定并推荐了旨在增强犀牛对这些可能威胁的适应力的适应措施。主要原因是（1）其主要栖息地“奇旺国家公园”（Chetwan National Park）可能存在入侵植物物种和严重洪灾；（2）巴迪亚（Bardia）和舒克拉潘塔国家公园的栖息地零散，人口少，干旱和森林大火。我们进一步确定并推荐了旨在增强犀牛对这些可能威胁的适应力的适应措施。主要原因是（1）其主要栖息地“奇旺国家公园”（Chetwan National Park）可能存在入侵植物物种和严重洪灾；（2）巴迪亚（Bardia）和舒克拉潘塔国家公园的栖息地零散，人口少，干旱和森林大火。我们进一步确定并推荐了旨在增强犀牛对这些可能威胁的适应力的适应措施。