Given large potentials of the MENA region for renewable energy production, transitions towards renewables-based energy systems seem a promising way for meeting growing energy demand while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions reductions according to the Paris Agreement at the same time. Supporting and steering transitions to a low-carbon energy system require a clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies in the energy system as well as of the principle dynamics of system innovations. For facilitating such understanding, a phase model for renewables-based energy transitions in MENA countries, which structures the transition process over time through the differentiation of a set of sub-sequent distinct phases, is developed in this article. The phase model builds on a phase model depicting the German energy transition, which was complemented by insights about transition governance and adapted to reflect characteristics of the MENA region. The resulting model includes four phases (“Take-off renewables”, “System integration”, “Power to fuel/gases”, “Towards 100% renewables”), each of which is characterized by a different cluster of innovations. These innovations enter the system via three stages of development which describe different levels of maturity and market penetration, and which require appropriate governance. The phase model has the potential to support strategy development and governance of energy transitions in MENA countries in two complementary ways: it provides an overview of techno-economic developments as orienting guidelines for decision-makers, and it adds some guidance as to which governance approaches are suitable for supporting those developments.

考虑到中东和北非地区可再生能源生产的巨大潜力，向同时基于《可再生能源》的能源系统过渡似乎是一种有前途的方式，既可以满足不断增长的能源需求，同时又可以根据《巴黎协定》为减少温室气体排放做出贡献。支持和指导向低碳能源系统的过渡，需要对能源系统中的社会技术相互依赖性以及系统创新的原理动态有清晰的了解。为了促进这种理解，本文开发了中东和北非国家基于可再生能源的能源转型的阶段模型，该模型通过区分一系列后续不同阶段来构建随时间推移的转换过程。该阶段模型基于描述德国能源转型的阶段模型，关于过渡治理的见解对此进行了补充，并适应了中东和北非地区的特征。最终的模型包括四个阶段（“起飞可再生能源”，“系统集成”，“燃料/气体发电”，“迈向100％可再生能源”），每个阶段都具有不同的创新集群。这些创新通过三个发展阶段进入系统，这些阶段描述了不同级别的成熟度和市场渗透率，并且需要适当的治理。此阶段模型有可能以两种互补的方式支持中东和北非国家的战略发展和能源转型的治理：它提供了技术经济发展概况，作为决策者的指导方针，